Into each life some rain must fall

I'm Blogging Again!

2010-04-09T05:58:00.002-04:00

This time on our corporate site but I think you will still find my posts with just as much scientific content. Please go to WANE dot com.

I'm Blogging Again!

2010-04-09T05:58:00.000-04:00

This time on our corporate site but I think you will still find my posts with just as much scientific content. Please go to http://blogs.wane.com

Green or Global?

2009-04-22T07:09:00.002-04:00

Okay, I know I get some oddball comments for this post, but this opinion is shared by many of us who have degrees in atmospheric sciences. I don't know if I go to the extreme that John Coleman does but it certainly is a good read. Mr. Coleman is the founder of the weather channel, so he has some impressive credentials. Here is his take on global warming.

Closed low moves out

2009-04-22T05:02:00.003-04:00

A much better looking weather picture for the next several days. We have been dealing with a couple of anomalies which keep clouds and showers around for quite a while. First let's talk about a closed low or cut off low. Here is the definition from the National Weather Service:

Cutoff Low: A closed low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft (i.e., retrogression).

"Cutoff low" and "closed low" often are used interchangeably to describe low pressure centers aloft. However, not all closed lows are completely removed from the influence of the basic westerlies. Therefore, the recommended usage of the terms is to reserve the use of "cutoff low" only to those closed lows which clearly are detached completely from the westerlies.

so basically we talking about low pressure that doesn't have jet stream winds to push it along and unlike most weather systems which move through within a day and the weather improves quickly the next day. This part of the country is plagued with these kinds of low pressure areas and they get stuck in the doldrums of very little movement in upper air winds of the jet stream.

2009-04-21T13:06:00.000-04:00

From Dan McAfee in Fort Wayne. Nice pictures Dan!

Temperatures Tumble to Begin Week

2009-04-20T05:34:00.003-04:00

A very chilly start to the day but southwest winds are going to bring in some warmer air with highs moving into the 50s. But the biggest problem for the next two days is going to be the rain. Showers will continue to be pushed northward by stubborn low pressure which will move gradually to the east over the next 36 to 48 hours. Most of the next two day will be kept in the clouds as well.

You can see the low parked across the area and that's the main factor for today and tomorrow. You can also see the QPF which is bringing in about another .50 to 75" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon.

2009-04-16T06:03:00.004-04:00

Mild air will finally be moving in across the area today as a smaller 'bubble' of high pressure will set up in the Great Lakes Region
You can see on this surface map that there is a lot going on around us. Low pressure to our west and east, but finally some high pressure blocking any cloud cover and changing very little over the next 3 days. That's about all you can hope for right now as we have a very fast moving jet stream. Okay, so I know this is going to be a little mind expanding and I apologize for it in advance, but I wanted to show you the 200 mb chart. This is the place where the jet stream resides. You can see by the legend that we do have 100 knot winds pushing weather systems through very quickly. Right now that jet is driving the fastest moving air to the north. High pressure is also a factor in pushing this jet stream north. There's always been a debate in meteorology on whether the jet stream steers high and low pressure or low and high pressure steer the jet stream.

A bit better today

2009-04-15T06:26:00.002-04:00

It will be a bit more moderate in the temperature department today with highs building into the lower 50s. There's still a stubborn area of low pressure to our east that will still bring clouds into the picture. If you have a chance to look at a looping satellite picture today do it. It's a great lesson in what low pressure is. I can talk until I'm blue in the face about the wind flow around low pressure and the fact that a 'cyclonic flow' moves air upward and that's how the process of cloud making begins. (Along with the water cycle process). But this actually shows that flow of air.

Another day of clouds and showers

2009-04-14T05:55:00.006-04:00

Yesterday was pretty much as expected, gusty winds of up to 47 mph, heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts up to .75". Today is not going to be much different, a strong low pressure system will stay south of the state early today and into the middle of the afternoon with begin to move east. The low pressure is going to act like a pumping mechanism bring moisture up to our area through the day and overnight hours. Until this low moves east we'll continue to see gusty winds and showers.

After this weather system passes warmer temperatures are on the way. In fact, we could see highs top out in the upper 60s through the end of the week. Sunday and Monday look like a very different story.
Sunday another wave of low pressure comes in from the south. While it looks like warm air advection in front of this system it's another story by Monday morning.
You can see 850 mb temperatures drop into -6 to -10. That's moderately colder air for this time of year and we'll have to watch to see if this moderates at all over the next couple of days.

It's Back

2009-04-13T05:03:00.005-04:00

For all who think I had forgotten how to blog you may be correct. Sorry for the lapse, I'll try to get a daily synopsis out here for you and open up for discussion. Today is a good day to begin, (again). We've seen a series of low pressure systems coming out of the southwest the last two weeks. A couple of things to watch with these weather systems.
I'm a little concern with the QPF map putting a 'bulls eye' right across the northern part of the state. It has 1.30" of rain. That's not good news as the ground is still saturated from the six plus inches we've had in the last 20 days.
Here is the surface analysis for today. You can see that low pressure is being forced north by a fast moving jet stream. This strong jet stream is left over from our cold winter and is going to be a factor through the early part of the spring and may linger into early summer. Because of these factors we could see some violent spring weather across the south. Don't be surprised to hear about more tornadoes across the south today and tomorrow.
Here is the jet stream pattern for this week. For today you can see there is a real dip across the central part of the U.S. This is being caused by low pressure which will bring quite a bit of instability to what we traditionally call 'tornado alley' later today.

For us, I think heavy rain is about as severe as it will get around here. You can see the jet stream improving and moving north later in the week. That will be the return of high pressure which will greet us with sunshine after tomorrow.

2009-02-19T12:20:00.000-05:00

Video forecast

2009-02-06T05:18:00.000-05:00

NOAA Unveils New Alert System for La Niña and El Niño

La Niña Likely to Continue into Spring

February 5, 2009

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Animation (Nov. 12, 2008 to Jan. 28, 2009).

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today issued the first La Niña advisory under its new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System. Forecasters expect La Niña to influence weather patterns across the United States during the remainder of the winter and into the early spring.

Defined as cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña impacts the weather globally. La Niña’s opposite is El Niño, or warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These changes in ocean temperatures alter the tropical wind and rainfall patterns with far reaching implications.

“The typical weather patterns associated with La Niña and El Niño affect many industries including agriculture, transportation, energy, shipping and construction,” said Michael S. Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “The ENSO Alert System will succinctly inform industry, government agencies, academia and the public about the onset and status of La Niña and El Niño. This system will also help decision makers plan for the potential effects presented by these conditions.”

La Niña conditions have been present since late December, but it is too early to say exactly how strong the event will be and precisely how long it will last. However, for the next few months La Niña is expected to bring milder and drier than average conditions to the southeastern and southwestern states. It is also expected to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and cooler than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.

The new ENSO alert system includes La Niña and El Niño watches and advisories which the Climate Prediction Center will issue when specific conditions exist.

La Niña or El Niño Watch: conditions in the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of La Niña or El Niño conditions in the next three months.
La Niña or El Niño Advisory: La Niña or El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue.

These watches and advisories are now part of the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which is issued by the Climate Prediction Center on the Thursday falling between the 5th and 11th of every month. It is available online.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

Ice Storm Pictures

2009-01-30T05:26:00.002-05:00

Here are northern Kentucky ice storm pictures. The ice storm was followed by 3 inches of snow. Credit goes to my former intern and now weatherguy in Bowling Green Kentucky and his father.

2009-01-28T08:11:00.003-05:00

Snow...Let it End...Snowfall totals right now are about 5.7" at Fort Wayne Airport. In other areas south of Fort Wayne the heaviest snowfall we can find is approaching six inches. The snowfall cut off is really the northern side of Allen county. The north side of the county getting about 3". Eastern and northern counties to Fort Wayne getting about 1" so the cut off is very sharp. The snowfall should end by the middle of the morning. The line of snow is quickly ending across the western side of the state.

2009-01-27T06:27:00.011-05:00

Let it Snow? Snow is back into the picture here and it's a tricky little system. Let me explain my thinking by first pointing to why the weather service is forecasting a heavy snow. One of the numerical models is putting out 5 plus inches for the Fort Wayne area. The GFS-NAM model is putting this information. Many times I see this model over-doing precipitation, especially with snowfall forecasts. Here is my thinking on this one.

You can see in the 48 hour 850 mb plot that the low which will be responsible for this storm is well across the Northeast. I don't believe it travels far enough to the north and east for us to get into the heaviest snowfall. In fact, I put it on more of a Cincy to Buffalo track. This would bring snowfall in but would relegate the heaviest snowfall south of Fort Wayne. Maybe Bluffton on south ward may get 4 inches of snow. South of that especially in the Muncie are we could be looking at about 6"

Here is one of the models we use here at the weather center it's called Addonis and we call it Futurecast on TV. It shows the low across southern Kentucky. More importantly it takes it on a southward track.

Take a look at this snap shot early Wednesday morning. The track takes it south of Columbus, Ohio. That would put the heaviest snowfall south of our area.

Cold air will be back after that through Friday morning as 850 Celisus temperatures drop to around -12 degrees.

2009-01-22T07:01:00.004-05:00

Arctic air coming in for another visit: Let's enjoy today and early tomorrow as much as we can because that unwanted relative from the north is coming in for another visit.
You can actually see the mild air coming for a visit today with 850 mb temperatures near +3! Okay, so here's the other shoe...and it's big one. This usually happens ahead of an arctic weather system as that gateway to the north will be opened by another 'clipper' type weather system moves through the area and changes the flow to a north flow which opens up that arctic gateway.
You can see the cusp of the cold air moving in late Friday behind the clipper system with temperatures of -14 to -22 Celsius coming into northern Indiana by Friday evening.
It's not the core of the coldest air but it is certainly formidable as the coldest air (-50 C) sits in southern Canada and northern Michigan. But a couple of things really don't bode well for a quick moderation in temperatures. One is that the cold air is moving across an area which snow covers the ground. That makes it nearly impossible to moderate temperatures. The other is that the core of cold air is not far from the air mass we will be experiencing.

2009-01-19T05:42:00.006-05:00

Cold start: We are not seeing the bitter cold air that we saw last week, but still moderately cold with 850 mb temperatures around -16 Celsius. So even with sunshine it's doubtful that we will make it past 20 degrees this afternoon.

You can still see the arctic still opened up through Tuesday morning. That gateway will allow for another cold day Tuesday as well.

Mid-Week Warm up:
On Thursday morning you can see the cold air retreat up towards northern Canada. The gate way closes a bit with warmer air coming in. The core of the coldest air is back in the polar regions of the world.

Another Shot of Cold Air: It doesn't last though with another 'clipper' system coming in on Friday with snow chances and especially more cold air. You can see the low the moves across Ohio and to the east coast.

The core of the coldest air comes down from the north again to southern Canada. This is a little troubling as we will see cold air through the weekend. Not as cold as last week but still very cold. A word of caution here, this is the only model carrying the cold air. As usual we'll wait for the other models to come around to this solution.

Wind Chills

2009-01-15T05:34:00.002-05:00

Wind chills: Before we talk about today's weather I want to blog about wind chills. I hear people get really excited about wind chill temperatures and how cold it is. I want to remind you that wind chill is a value or perceived temperature. The formula has been changed recently because the old formula was based on water and not on exposed skin. Just for fun here is old and new the formula.

Wind chill temperature = 35.74 + 0.6215T - 35.75V (**0.16) + 0.4275TV(**0.16)

In the formula, V is in the wind speed in statute miles per hour, and T is the temperature in degrees Fahrenheit.

Note: In the formula, ** means the following term is an exponent (i.e. 10**(0.5 ) means 10 to the 0.5 power, or the square root of V), - means to subtract, + means to add. A letter next to a number means to multiply that quantity represented by the letter by the number. The standard rules of algebra apply.

For reference, the old wind chill formula was:

T(wc) = 0.0817(3.71V**0.5 + 5.81 -0.25V)(T - 91.4) + 91.4

Source for both formulas: The National Weather Service

By the way wind chill only applies to people and animals not objects.

2009-01-14T11:14:00.000-05:00

Snow is heavy Snowfall has been surprisingly heavy this morning and it looks to continue for a few more hours early this afternoon. Snowfall amounts at the station are close to 3 inches. It looks like we could see anywhere from 3 to 5 inches from Fort Wayne south.

2009-01-14T05:18:00.005-05:00

Another shot of snow: A clipper system will move across the area today. These clipper system have a couple of common characteristics. One, they bring limited moisture because there is no inflow from the Gulf of Mexico. The second is that they are fast moving systems.

Can it be too cold for snow? Nope it can snow at any temperature. As the temperature gets colder the snow grain gets smaller because the colder the air is the less moisture the air can hold.

It stays cold: You can see this red color on this 850 mb map. It depicts -26 Celsius. That's bitter cold.
The cold air stays in place through Saturday. Here's Saturday morning with 850 mb temperatures still -26 Celsius.

Watchs warnings all dropped

2009-01-13T16:39:00.002-05:00

The blizzard watches and the winter storm warnings have all been dropped. In my humble opinion this thing has been over-warned by NWS. I sometimes feel like the middle man in this whole process. I can put together the best forecast in the world but if one guy sitting in North Webster disagrees with me then I have to at least mention the warnings and it turns into that old telephone game where the message at the end is much worse then intended. Some people think we issue the warnings, nothing could be further from the truth.

I know I have simplified this a little but the NWS does coordinate with other offices and sometimes they don't like the warnings either but you can have single counties in one region with warnings and when counties that connect to them don't have warnings. I understand the dilemma but it doesn't mean I like it. I guess we can chalk it up to the government and as you know nothing gets done easily or for that matter seamlessly by the Feds. Okay my rant is over. For a full discussion of today's forecast check below.

2009-01-13T05:02:00.006-05:00

Bitter Cold Air is on the way... This may be the coldest air the season and it is going to come in with a fury this afternoon. Winds will gust up to 30 mph this afternoon. Highs will fall from the 30s into the teens by late afternoon. This dark red color represents -26 Celsius at 850 mb. This cold air is not the core of the coldest air but certainly not a glancing blow either. The other problem with this air is that it really will not be modified by the ground as it moves in across snow fields. It is going to be very breezy as well.

I know this surface analysis is a little messy but bare with me here. The isobars on the map are tightly packed with means some gusty winds on what we call a tight pressure gradient. That means the pressure is going to be changing. You will see barometric pressure of 30.30" and higher because cold air is very heavy.

It's here to stay: Bitter cold air will stick around.

Not only will the bitter cold air stick around it looks like another couple shots of snow as well. It's still cold with -16 Celsius temperatures at 850 mph by Saturday. It looks like cold air is not the only story. Another weather system will come in late Saturday and into Sunday.
You can see this system here as it will bring another chance of accumulating snow on Sunday.

2009-01-11T11:41:00.003-05:00

Snowfall totals: blogging from Nashville, TN this morning where there is no snow at all of course. It seems like Allen county had about 1.5" a the airport and 3.5" near Dupont road in snowfall. North counties like Steuben had about 6.5" of snowfall. This one panned out about like a thought it would. Get ready for some bitterly cold air coming this next week. I'll blog more about it later, I've got to hear Dolly sing...:) (Kidding)

2009-01-09T17:52:00.002-05:00

Still on track The latest Cobb model data shows about 4" total across the Fort Wayne area. Maybe six up north. That's a total I think I can land on. The snowfall we saw this morning was part of the warm front and the low itself which is still several hundred miles to the south. This system is going to create a real dry slot to the south of it and the moisture is all going north. I am still holding on the belief that the heaviest snowfall should be around Jackson to Lansing Michigan. I'll talk more about the scientific reasons for my thinking in a later post. Right now there is some hockey to watch! Go Komets.

2009-01-09T04:39:00.006-05:00

Significant snowfall possible: This is going to be an interesting event to follow over the next several hours. There is going to be a narrow band of heavy snowfall and it's up to the meteorological community to figure out where that line will be. Right snow it looks like the heaviest snowfall could be from Fort Wayne and north with anywhere from 2 to 7 inches falling. However, it all depends on the track of low pressure which has been diving to the south and will then make a northeastward track towards our area. The biggest questions now are how far north will the low move and will it be too far south for significant snowfall. Right now I don't have a definitive answer to those questions as every numerical model seems to have a different solution to this dynamic problem.

Here is what the general consensus of models and thinking is right now. The heaviest snowfall band should be across extreme northern Indiana over the next 24 hours.
Here's the interesting part, the track of the low pressure with the low tracking right through Lafayette and just south of Fort Wayne. This track is troubling since it puts the heavy snowfall north of the area. I believe that's why NWS has put most of it's emphasis for the 'winter storm warning' north of Fort Wayne.
Here is the position of the low by Sunday afternoon so you can see the northward track this system is taking.

Then it's just plain ol' cold: I won't spend a lot of time on this right now as we are dealing with this weekend's storm system. But needless to say bitter cold air will be here next week. We could see some below zero temperatures by the middle of next week.

Baby it's cold outside.

2009-01-08T04:38:00.004-05:00

As I stumbled into the station in darkness at an hour too early to mention I found myself humming that old Christmas song "Baby it's cold outside". But I like the Will Farrell version better. Highs will not get out of the 20s today and believe it or not that's going to set a trend for the next several days.

It's going to get colder: It will cold on Sunday with 850 mb falling to -12! But take a look to the north and keep this in mind before looking below.

Bitter cold?
This is the release of the 'polar vortex' or the coldest core of air from the Arctic Circle. The coldest air will still be just a little bit north of our area. That said, it looks like -24 Celsius temperatures at 850 mb. Baby that's really cold

Lake Effect Snow Machine

2009-01-07T07:35:00.002-05:00

Lake effect snow could be a problem
The lake effect snow machine could turn on later this afternoon with a good set up for some places around Fort Wayne to get some accumulating snow. Strong westerly winds will create a pretty good fetch and it will be slippery into this afternoon.

2009-01-07T04:41:00.004-05:00

A thin layer of ice: As expected we are waking up to a layer of ice which is making things rather slippery. It doesn't look to be improving much with temperatures not getting above freezing anytime soon.

Colder and breezy: A change in pressure and a tighter gradient will whip up winds over the next 36 hours.
Here is what I am referring too with a tight gradient. The lines of equal pressure or 'isobars' are tightly packed on this surface map. This gives us an indication that we will see gusty winds with lower pressure. This windy situation will continue over the next 36 hours.

Looking ahead. Take a look at next week! Low pressure moves in and opens the gateway for some bitterly cold air. You can see the 850 mb temperature drops to -20. If this holds up with could be looking at single digit highs or maybe even colder. We need to keep looking at this as it looks like it could be a arctic outbreak for our region.

2009-01-06T07:11:00.002-05:00

Precipitation headed our way: It looks like snow/sleet and yes freezing rain is headed our way this morning. There will be more to come tonight and tomorrow morning as well. Here's a loop of radar so you can see what's happening. For my take on the situation read the post below this one.

2009-01-06T04:40:00.004-05:00

Could be a little messy: A southern system will really bring in an interesting situation over the next 18 to 24 hours. Heavier colder air will sit on the surface today and tomorrow with a weather system moves in from the south. This weather system brings warmer air in front of it. Instead of the warmer air coming down to the surface it will stay above the colder air and that creates a problem.

I've used this diagram before but it's worth a dusting off and using again. The higher pressure at the surface represents the colder air which is heavier and the low at 500 mb and 300 mb is warmer air. This is what we call an inversion, the opposite of normal with warm air not at the surface but at the lower levels of the atmosphere. The problem then is that we have liquid precipitation and freezing rain.

My best estimates right now is that we see snow late this afternoon followed by some freezing rain and sleet overnight turning to all snow by daybreak on Wednesday. Ice accumulations could be about a tenth of an inch early tomorrow morning before turning to snow. Could be a real mess.

Back to blogging

2009-01-05T05:01:00.004-05:00

South meets north:

Two weather systems to talk about today. A pacific weather system and a southern system. The southern system can be seen in old Mexico. The Gulf of Alaska weather system moves into the picture as well across the pacific northwest west. Here is the problem, with the moisture from the south it will warm the upper levels of the atmosphere first. A shallow area of cold air sits at the surface and this sets up well for a period of freezing rain overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.

It gets colder:

By Thursday morning it looks like some cold air is back into the picture with -15 Celsius air at 850 mb. This is short lived as more moderate air comes into the picture by Friday.

2008-12-26T05:33:00.004-05:00

A slippery morning and after that...There is a freezing rain advisory early this morning but it looks like warming temperatures by mid morning above the freezing mark.
Flooding a concern: Flooding could be a problem through the day tomorrow especially by late day as we'll see showers and maybe even some thunderstorms which are in what we call the 'warm sector' of a weather system. This warm sector could produce temperatures in the 60s by tomorrow afternoon.

Arctic air for the new year: I wanted to show you something I've been following this week. First the GFS model picked it up and the model I like to call the King of Cold air the ECMWF is coming in with some cold air next week. It may not be as deep as the cold air we saw last weekend but it is certainly something to watch. Here is the start of it with that violet color moving in.
Temperatures by Thursday morning are -10 to -16 Celsius that could be really cold to begin the new year.

2008-12-24T16:01:00.002-05:00

Merry Christmas to all and to all a gusty night!: Winds are gusty at 45 mph at the airport and at some of our other weatherbug stations. This is all part of a weather system which is bringing a quick drop in temperatures this afternoon and tonight. In fact, overnight lows will be in the teens tonight. It looks like it will seasonal cold temperatures for Christmas day with winds dying down.

2008-12-23T22:12:00.002-05:00

Still looking at Freezing Rain even though the temperature at FWA airport is above freezing. The arctic temperatures are responsible for that. Surfaces are still well below freezing. Remember what the definition of freezing rain is: Liquid precipitation that freezes on contact with frozen surface. Not sleet which are ice pellets falling from the clouds. Ice pellets are actually closer to snow showers.

2008-12-23T18:33:00.001-05:00

Above freezing temperatures right now. We are seeing temperatures of 33 degrees at the airport and weather center. Let's hope this warming happens quicker then expected.

2008-12-23T18:05:00.000-05:00

2008-12-23T15:23:00.003-05:00

Rough night: I just got done looking at the latest model run and I don't think there's good news in the short term. We will have freezing rain beginning by early evening here. We are already seeing it across Muncie and Jay county Portland area and the warm air is doing exactly what we thought it would do; over ride the cold air which is still at the surface. The good news if there is any here is that temperatures will warm overnight and we should be seeing temperatures above freezing in the morning. But the evening is not going to be a "cake walk' with freezing rain for at least 4 maybe 6 hours and ice accumulations up to .3"

2008-12-22T18:12:00.002-05:00

This is kind of strange. I'm working a double shift today so I'll update in the evening as well. I take early tomorrow morning off though. It is looking more and more like an ice storm at least for about 4 to 6 hours tomorrow night. The problem once again is going to be the warm air over riding the colder heavy colder air on the surface. Even though high pressure on the surface will be moved to the east the cold air is stubborn and it will take a while to move. I think from Fort Wayne south we'll see ice accumulation and to the north about 3 to 6 inches of snow. So you could see snow in the north Allen county and ice in the southern part. Stay tuned it's going to be a bumpy ride over the next several hours.

2008-12-22T05:34:00.004-05:00

First the ice and now the bitter cold: It looks like one more bitter cold day with temperatures in the single digits with partly sunny skies. Lows will be below zero for another night. You can see this huge area of high pressure. This is what we call a cold core high.

*Can be shallow or deep: most intense at the surface (due to cold/dense air) and weaken with height if away from source region. The upper levels will show a deep trough if the polar air mass moves into mid-latitudes. Cold core highs are deep near their source regions*Precipitation generally lacking near cold core high center*Covers a large spatial area*Produces synoptic scale surface subsidence*Develop over high latitude land.

So basically the cold polar air gets trapped at the surface while the warmer air which has a lower density and pressure rides above it, making for a dome which sits across the area.

Some relief?

I apologize for the complexity of these models today. My normal site where I love to get data is down this morning. These are 500 mb heights with surface pressure. The thickness value which I have derived off these models through the end of the week has moderating temperatures. Here's the problem though, we could still see some warm air overriding the frigid air on the surface for some freezing rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night. After that we should begin to see warmer air.

More Pictures of the ice storm

2008-12-19T15:19:00.003-05:00

John McGauley from the blog A beautiful city has some very scenic shots of the ice storm. Thanks John. I'll be posting my thoughts on this weekend here in a couple of hours if you want to check back.

Pictures of the ice

2008-12-19T06:16:00.001-05:00

Here are some pictures Kelly took this morning. This ice has stuck to vegetation and there are thousands without power. The wind and ice are a lethal combination. .30" of ice accumulation so far.

2008-12-19T06:02:00.000-05:00

Still a real problem. We are still looking for ice accumulation through the early morning hours with temperatures not getting above freezing until 8am this morning. Kelly Greene has taken some pictures and we will upload them for you in a couple of minutes.

2008-12-19T04:11:00.001-05:00

It's all rain now but temperatures steadily are going up. Now we see highs near 29! The low pressure is making it's way through southern Indiana and will be through our area in the next couple of hours. This will bring temperatures above freezing by about 8am this morning which will mean the end of this event!

2008-12-19T03:20:00.000-05:00

Still looking at heavy rain with sleet from Fort Wayne to the south. We are getting reports that it is all snow north of Fort Wayne and all ice south. It doesn't look like we are going to see temperatures rise above freezing for a least another several hours. Probably around 8 to 9 am this morning.

Getting Slick Out There!

2008-12-19T02:11:00.003-05:00

Just getting reports now that the freezing rain is starting. It's all liquid out there and roads are getting very bad around southwest Allen County and Huntington County. Waynedale in the southwest part of Fort Wayne is reporting heavy Freezing rain. This is getting really bad. I am posting another update on WANE.com as well as going on the air every 15 minutes.

Going to get worse

2008-12-19T01:50:00.001-05:00

Right now we are still seeing mostly a sleet, snow mix but within the next hour we should begin to see all liquid and that means freezing rain will begin sticking. We could see up to 2 tenths of inch an hour for the next several hours making for a really dangerous situation.

Just starting here

2008-12-19T01:24:00.001-05:00

Right now at the station I'm just starting to see sleet. It wasn't liquid yet, (which is really good news). I'm not holding out hope that it's all going to be sleet as the middle atmosphere warms it's going to turn to liquid.

1AM Update

2008-12-19T01:08:00.002-05:00

Here at the weather center. The Live Doppler Fury is showing a moderate band of rain to the south with temperatures still in the lower 20s. It looks like it will be a tough several hours as I think we are already seeing heavy ice accumulations possible through the mid morning hours. Heavy to moderate rainfall is just moving into southwestern Allen county and is saturating southern counties include the Warsaw, Wabash, Marion Portland and Bluffton area. The Muncie temperature at this hour is still just below freezing at 30 degrees. Come on warmer temperatures! I don't think we are going to be that lucky. I'll be live again on WANE TV at 1:30 and I just posted a new video with a new Futurecast that supports my theroy that we'll see Freezing rain through mid morning on WANE.com. Here's a loop of Live Doppler.

2008-12-18T05:44:00.006-05:00

Significant Winter Storm: After a quiet day it looks like anything but quiet tonight. A winter storm bringing ice and snow is on the way. This one is a little complicated though.
Here is the breakdown right now. There is an Ice Storm Warning from Fort Wayne and to the south and a Winter Storm Warning north of Fort Wayne. It looks like the hours between 10pm tonight and 9am tomorrow morning will be touch and go especially south of Fort Wayne. Temperatures are going to be the biggest problem. Temperatures will get above freezing by about mid morning tomorrow, but before that is when areas from Fort Wayne south could see ice accumulation.
North of Fort Wayne: North of Fort Wayne could see some ice accumulation but more than likely the closer you get to the border of Michigan the more the ice will turn to snow. Around Steuben county we could see 3 to 4 inches of snow before morning. Usually the heaviest snow is just north of the ice storm. This situation will evolve over night and I'll try to blog out the storm for you.
The Weekend: Another winter storm will head our way. This one is coming from the south but will essentially open up that gateway to the Arctic Circle again.
Here is a look at the storm tomorrow afternoon. It is sitting across Texas. This storm will bring moisture our way on Sunday. One thing I'm not crazy about is the track of this low. It looks too far north to bring heavy snow to our area. However, it could bring some snow in front of the system, (what I like to call on-slaught snow). It is also going to bring very cold temperatures into Monday.

A White Christmas? Yes Virginia Santa is going to bring a white Christmas.
Here is Monday, ouch this is cold we'll be lucky to see temperatures in the teens this day and we could go sub zero for the first time as well.

Here is Christmas eve morning, it looks like another southern system will bring some light snow. Once again, I'm not thrilled with the track for heavy snow, but I'm sure will see some fresh snow on the ground.

2008-12-17T05:32:00.006-05:00

A bit of a break: The snow and freezing rain will end for today but temperatures will remain on the cold side as we see the calm before another storm heads our way. Highs will be in the middle to upper 20s this afternoon with clearing skies tonight and the snow on the ground it looks like lows could be in the single digits in some locations.

A rough Thursday night and Friday morning?
Low pressure is making it's way northward by Thursday night and Friday morning. Most of the time that means warmer air for us. But this is kind of a complicated pattern as warm air will override the cold air at first and this is a set up for freezing rain.

Here's a couple of diagrams to explain this:

The pink represents snow on this diagram with the blue the warmer middle atmosphere. As the snow falls it melts in this middle atmosphere and then falls as rain (the green). As this liquid touches the freezing surface it freezes on impact and that's what the definition of freezing rain is. Many people think freezing rain is what is know as ice pellets or sleet.
Here is a temperature profile as the snow melts then falls into a freezing layer and because rain is not pure water, (it's actually a solution of dust and water) it doesn't freeze in the lower atmosphere and stays liquid until it hits a freezing surface then turns to ice.

It looks like freezing rain will be short lived as temperatures will rise into the 40s by Friday morning. They will quickly fall by Friday afternoon and the rain will change to snow.

The Weekend:

Another blast of colder air will bring temperatures into the 20s again but in the process to opening the gateway of cold air from the Arctic Circle. Southern moisture is coming in Sunday with a system moving across the plains by afternoon. It will quickly move across our area by Sunday evening. As far as heavy snowfall, this track is going to limit very heavy snowfall but it will turn bitterly cold.

You can see the bitter cold air coming in by Monday morning with 850 mb temperatures at -16 Celsius.

2008-12-16T05:18:00.007-05:00

The Cold Reality: Not only is the bitter cold a problem this morning but another weather system is moving toward the area from the south. You can see this system just moving into the pan handle of Texas early this morning. The question on these weather systems is always the track, or which way the system will move. If it moves far enough north it could bring an accumulating snowfall to the area.

This model shows that the track of the low is through the southern part of the state and it looks like it will be far enough north to get some snow in northeastern Indiana. Interestingly enough one of the numerical output models I use has about a half an inch of snow. So it looks like this one is going to be close with most of the snow to the south.

As the week goes on: It should be rather quiet through mostly of the rest of the week, but Friday is a different story.

This the situation on Friday. Warm air ahead of a weather system has highs near +9 that could translate to about 49 degrees on the surface. So it will begin as rain on Friday, but much like the last system that moved through the area yesterday there is some cold air and we could be seeing snow by Friday night.
You can see another southern system moving north, but this time temperatures will be cold enough for some accumulating snowfall.

Then it gets very cold as bitter cold arctic air brings 850 mb down to -17 C. This will mean teens and 20s as highs to begin the week next week.

2008-12-15T05:54:00.008-05:00

A big fall in temperatures today! High temperatures have already been reached this morning as we see rapidly falling temperatures to our west. Temperatures have falling into the single digits and teens to our west in Illinois. A very tight pressure gradient will cause the gusty winds to continue through out the day and into this evening. Here is a look at what's going on right now:

I want you to look at two things here. One is the low pressure and the lines around it called isobars. See how close they are together? That tells us that we are going to see gusty winds across the area today. The other thing is that bright red color across the plains. This low pressure has opened the gateway to the arctic circle and we have the core of the coldest air being felt over the plains this afternoon. Temperatures will fall well below zero through tomorrow.

Tuesday Storm System: Watch this storm system across the south it is moving rapidly towards us and will be here on Tuesday night.

Here is Wednesday morning. As the storm comes in Tuesday night we could see the mid levels of the atmosphere warm up while the surface stays at freezing. This is what freezing rain is all about as liquid sticks to an already frozen surface.

The rest of the week.
Highs will actually be around normal through Thursday with another storm coming our way on Friday. This is where is begins to get interesting.

Another southern weather system comes into the picture. It looks like rain and temperatures in the upper 40s again but we will see a drop by late afternoon. (Much like today).

Sunday looks very interesting as the cold air which will spend the week in the plains will finally make it way toward our area. Temperatures will only be in the 20s through the afternoon.

2008-12-12T05:26:00.005-05:00

The cold reality: Temperatures will dive today as a gateway to the north has been opened up overnight because of a weather system that moved through the area yesterday. 850 mb temperatures here (in the purple color) are sitting at -16 Celsius this morning. That's really cold!

The weekend: A large scale weather system is still on track to move into our area by late Sunday.

You can see the warmer air still ahead of this system with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Also some very breezy conditions as those isobars are tightly packed together here. By early Monday this system is pushed north but does it's job by opening the gateway to colder air from the north by late in the day. You can see the core of the coldest air dumping across the plains.
Fortunately the coldest air retreats and we are going to see moderately colder air across the region.

2008-12-11T05:12:00.005-05:00

A bit of a cool down: A quiet day with temperatures near normal in the middle 30s. However, a weather system moves in later today and into tonight with colder air filtering in behind it. The front will change our flow from the southwest to the north which will take highs today down to the upper 20s tomorrow. Here you can see the northern low as it takes most of the energy north but...
You can see the colder air get dragged down to the south. The core of the coldest air, (the red color) shows the extremely cold air is not far away.

Interesting start next week: A huge weather system is moving through the plains early Sunday with some warmer air ahead of it. Take a look at how closely the isobars are packed together. This what is called a 'tight gradient' in meteorological terms. It means there is a big change in pressure and it is a red flag for the forecaster that there will be some gusty winds. The slope becomes pretty steep ahead of this weather system as cold air is allowed to dump into the plains while the warmer air gets forced into the Great Lakes area.
Moderately cold air moves into the area by late Monday and into Tuesday.

2008-12-10T05:43:00.007-05:00

Temperatures Tumble Things are getting back to normal today as highs will actually fall with cold air advection all day. Temperatures will fall from early highs in the 30s back into the 20s by this afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty especially before noon and the northeast winds will keep temperatures down overnight as well as temperatures fall into the lower 20s.
Quiet for a couple of days: A couple of things to point out here. A big weather system in the southeast will rob the moisture from a small clipper type system moving to our north. Not going to rob the cold air though as temperatures. That cold air will be felt on Friday as you can see we get the -12 Celsius line across the area by early Friday morning.
Warm and wet weekend? A large pacific system moves in by Monday. You can see temperatures are way up as the +8 line is well across our area. So that means rain and warmer temperatures.
Still warm ahead of the weather system but you can see the cold air is on the way and it looks like this next warm up is also going to be short lived.

2008-12-09T04:35:00.005-05:00

Short term thaw: Temperatures will continue to be above freezing through midnight tonight ahead of a weather system which will bring moderately colder air overnight as rain will slowly changing into snow. Temperatures will dive into the lower 30s as highs Wednesday and stay that way for the remainder of the week.
The Weekend: Another interesting pattern setting up for the weekend as Saturday we will still be dealing with high pressure which moves to the east coast. The movement of this high will allow for a southerly air flow pattern to begin setting up for the weekend. You can see on this image that 850 mb temperatures are still fairly cold on Saturday morning.
Sunday morning your eyes should be drawn to two things one is the large scale low pressure which is moving from the southern Rockies to the Plains. The second is the large red blob that indicates extremely cold air dumping into the northern Rockies. This is the core of the coldest air and has a temperature of -24 C! The big question here is when does this shift to the Great Lakes Region?
As the low moves across Wisconsin on Monday you can see that the cold expands into Minnesota and the Dakotas. Rain will change to snow and it looks like the cold air will be back here by next week.

2008-12-08T11:35:00.001-05:00

Snowfall from the last 'clipper' that moved through the area.

2008-12-08T05:13:00.005-05:00

Week begins with a thaw: Temperatures will warm ahead of a southern weather system. We'll see warm air advection overnight tonight and into tomorrow ahead of the weather system with cooler air coming back into the picture tomorrow night. Temperatures will fall overnight back below freezing and the rain will change to snow. You can see this weather system across the 'four corners' area temperatures are +16 Celsius

As the system approaches on Tuesday morning we will see temperatures about +2 Celsius. So above freezing. This system is different because it's not a 'clipper' or northern system and it will not bring abruptly colder temperatures behind it.

Quiet rest of the week:

You can see the cold air just to the north of us, but the good news there really won't be a northern weather system to pull it down for the rest of the week. So temperatures will stay in the 30s, at least for a while.

Winter Weather Advisory

2008-12-06T11:38:00.002-05:00

A Bitter cold 'clipper' type system is moving across the area today. Take a look at a couple of things here. Look at the placement at the low by the end of the day. It is east of our area, but still a little too far north for a heavy snowfall. The other variable today are cold temperatures. Remember the warmer the temperature the more water it holds. So temperates in the 20s will bring higher ratios of snow but also smaller snowflakes. In other words the dendrite ice crystals will stand up a little more but because the temperature is colder the snow will not have as much water content and there will be less snow. Hope that makes sense. The cold air will continue to be a problem for this week with minus 16 Celsius at 850mb. That's mighty cold!

2008-12-05T05:30:00.005-05:00

Bitter cold BLAST: The coldest day of the season is coming in early December as the Arctic Circle has been opened and cold air is freely streaming into our area. Temperatures will continue to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

The Weekend: Another weather system comes from the north on Saturday, you can see it dragging cold temperatures down along with it .

One Sunday the gateway to the bitter cold air is opened up again and we see highs just getting into the middle 20s. You can see very cold air which follows the path all the way to the arctic. Temperatures don't moderate much at the 850 mb level with -15 Celsius.

2008-12-04T05:16:00.003-05:00

Bitter Cold Weather Picture: Bitter cold air is moving in across the region as a cold front that formed in Canada moved through the area last night. This front will bring falling temperatures through the region this morning with a strong northwesterly flow off Lake Michigan which will create clouds and maybe some light snow over the area.
Round Two: There really is no break from the cold as another cold front from the north comes in over the week. This is another 'clipper' type system which may give us some light snow accumulations across the region with more snow to the north.
Through the weekend: It doesn't look like much of a rebound for the weekend either as highs will only be in the 20s.

What to watch out for:
For one it looks like bitter cold air will once again be dumping across the area. One thing to look for on this model is the bright red color. This is the core of the coldest air and has a temperature of -24 Celsius! Also low pressure is coming from the north again. While the track is not conducive for heavy snow light accumulations are certainly possible.

Continued bitter cold on Sunday as we have gateway opened up to the Arctic Circle.

Forecast complications

2008-12-03T06:27:00.004-05:00

Forecast Challenges: Certainly some forecast challenges over the next 24 hours and beyond. The first is how much snow tonight with this "clipper" system? Well a couple of thoughts, many times clippers bring in their own moisture. It also depends on how quickly it cools. I don't think one to two inches is out of the question north of Fort Wayne since that area will be in the snow for longer because it will cool off faster. Here's a look at one of the numerical read outs we see at the weather center. 081203/2000Z 14 20010KT 38.7F RAIN This line tells us that at 20z or at about 3pm we will begin to see rain. 081204/0600Z 24 30010KT 32.2F SNOW. This line tells us that around 6z on December 4th (or 2am) we will begin to see the snow as temperatures will reach the 32 degree mark.

Thursday: The end result after the snow will be the cold temperatures. With some sunshine we should be able to just squeak into the lower 30s.

Friday through the weekend: Another clipper system comes in. I think it's going to bring some warm air and some snow but I don't really like the track of this system for heavy snow.

Here is a look at the end of the day Saturday. The low is just a little two far snow for a big snow. But that cold air certainly will make a presence.

Next Week: Next week we may be looking at a very interesting situation. A system to our south approaches the area. If we get the right track on this one we could be looking at significant snowfall. The temperatures are another matter, they got to be a little colder then depicted here.

Snow Pictures

2008-12-01T06:28:00.002-05:00

Pictures from John McGauley from his blog a beautiful city

2008-11-20T05:35:00.002-05:00

Temperatures will once again take a dive into the lower 30s by the end of the day. Light snow will also be seen but accumulating snow is not likely for most of the area. As a weather system moves across the area today it will take temperatures down and change the wind direction. Gusty northwest winds will bring accumulation snow to the Warsaw and Wabash area, lake effect snow will also be seen in Noble county. Look for the snow showers to subside this evening.

Head spinning forecast

2008-11-18T06:14:00.004-05:00

Okay,hold on to your hats! December-like temperatures today with highs in the lower 30s. Almost unbelievable when you realize that normal highs for the time of year are in the upper 40s. The good news today is that the lake effect snow machine will shut off. Plain and simple here: Lake effect snow is caused by cold winds along a warm lake. November is a prime time for this to happen as the lake is still very warm and of course we get cold enough temperatures. Let's delve into the models a little here.
This is the 850 mb chart for Thursday at 7am. It shows more cold air to our north as we see -14 Celsius line across northwestern Indiana.
Here is the 7am Friday picture. That -14 Celsius line is across the entire Great Lakes region. So temperatures will be similar to what they are this morning. The lake effect snow machine will turn on again today as well.

Now let's zip ahead to Monday at 7am. 850 mb temperatures are +8 Celsius! There is also a southern low across the area which means rain and mild temperatures. So much for a mild winter eh! But just take a glance to the north. The cold air is not too far away.

2008-11-18T06:03:00.002-05:00

Temperatures will be rather cold today as highs struggle to get above the freezing mark. In case you are wondering these high temperatures are not close to normal. Our average for this time of year is about 47 degrees. Temperatures will slowly rise ahead of another front which will drag some arctic air in Friday. By next week temperatures should be above or around average with rain coming Monday.

Still on track

2008-11-13T05:44:00.006-05:00

It looks like arctic air that I've been promoting this week is still on track. Let's take a look at the model data. You can see a 'gateway' opening up here across the plains on the eastern slopes of the Rockies.

You can see the -18 line through Iowa by 12z (7am) Saturday morning.
You can see the coldest air is shifted over the Great Lakes region by early Sunday morning. So that means cold air advection through the day on Saturday and most of the day on Sunday. That's why I have consistently kept highs in the 30s. If we do see a high in the 40s it will be before sunrise on Saturday morning as temperatures will fall into the middle 30s by the afternoon.

Then round two on Tuesday as another -20 Celsius line moves into the Great Lakes. Look for some lake effect snow.

2008-11-12T06:00:00.002-05:00

A bit of a trade off today as temperatures will be in the 50s but clouds and rain will be across the area. Breezy southwesterly winds will also be a problem through the afternoon. This warmer airmass will be across the state through tomorrow afternoon before an arctic weather system turns temperatures sharply colder for the weekend. Highs will only be in the 30s Saturday and Sunday.

More than one shot of cold air

2008-11-12T05:46:00.006-05:00

Winter will come early...Not only this weekend but if the models of choice are correct it could be early next week as well. Take a look at what happens on Saturday.

850 mb temperatures are -6. That's pretty cold for this time of year. You can also see the gateway of cold air from the Arctic Circle is opened up across the plains. This comes into play later by early next week. It's even colder by Sunday morning with 850 mb temperatures around -12! That's why I think we'll see lows in the teens Sunday morning. I have to qualify that prediction by saying that if we have clouds it won't get quite that cold.
Then there's Tuesday of next week! You want to talk cold air. How about -16 C. Ouch!

2008-11-12T05:44:00.003-05:00

Clouds will shroud the area with showers as a southwestern weather system will bring in some moderately warmer air into the picture through the end of the week. But don't expect this pattern to last much longer as a northern system will turn temperatures sharply colder by the weekend. Highs will be in the 30s and lows could be in the teens.

7 Day Forecast

Today
High: 49°Low: 42°
Rain
THU
High: 58°Low: 45°
Showers
FRI
High: 57°Low: 34°
Cloudy
SAT
High: 38°Low: 17°
Light Snow
SUN
High: 37°Low: 26°
Light Snow
MON
High: 41°Low: 22°
Cloudy
TUE
Cold
High: 36

Here we go again

2008-11-11T05:43:00.005-05:00

I love this time of year! When forecasts are so much different. We'll it's happening again and here's my rational and factual evidence of the chilly weather possible this weekend. My friendly ECMWF model is coming in very cold with -6 850 mb temperatures by Saturday morning.
And take a look at this: Yep -12 by Sunday morning, if you thought this morning was cold look out. (Although the clouds may keep the temperatures up on Monday morning)

2008-11-11T05:43:00.001-05:00

A real winter like feeling in the air this morning as temperatures are in the 20s. The clear skies will bring a sunny start but clouds will increase as a weather system comes from the southwestern U.S. This system will bring warmer air through the end of the week, but it will also bring some showers. An arctic weather system will move in from the north over the weekend taking temperatures down into the 30s.

2008-11-05T04:44:00.001-05:00

Another in a string of unbelievable warm days for the area as highs will be in the 70s. That over 20 degrees above normal and once again close to record setting. A strong weather system continues to build to our west. This western strom is going to bring November temperatures along with it. Highs will drop into the 60s on Friday and into the lower 40s for the weekend.

I think it's about time to get into our analysis mode. I'll try to put something together today using that old standard European model.

2008-11-04T05:55:00.000-05:00

If you were to vote for a perfect today would likely be your choice. Temperatures this afternoon will be almost 20 degrees above normal. Highs will continue to be well above normal through most of the week. Thursday night a very strong western system will begin to bring temperatures down. Friday highs will be in the middle 60s and it will be a breezy and much colder start to the weekend as temperatures will fall into the 40s!

2008-11-03T06:48:00.003-05:00

Get ready for some September-like weather! Temperatures will soar into the 70s this afternoon. These temperatures are about 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will continue to soar through the middle of the week but by the middle of the week our flow changes to more of a northern flow with highs falling into the 50s on Thursday and the 40s on Friday and through the weekend.

2008-10-30T05:34:00.001-04:00

Hi 55 FLo 40 F

Let the warm up begin. Well sort of...Today will bring slightly warmer temperatures as the predominant flow comes from the southwest instead of the northwest. This process will bring warmer Gulf air to the area late today and especially overnight. Temperatures will be in the middle 50s this afternoon but you will really begin to feel the warm up tonight as lows will only dip into 40s. Halloween will bring temperatures in the 60s ahead of a front which will stay to our north.

2008-10-29T06:06:00.000-04:00

Hi 51 FLo 28 F

Temperatures will continue their up hill climb today as highs will move into the lower 50s late this afternoon. The flow from the northwest will continue to keep temperatures below normal for another day. This pattern is going to change over the next 36 hours as low pressure pulls off the east coast today. Highs will be in the upper 50s tomorrow and in the 60s by the end of the week. One of the changes in the forecast, milder air for the weekend as a weather system stays north.
Later today I'll blog about the long term models and outlooks for this winter.

Cold wake up call

2008-10-28T04:40:00.001-04:00

Hi 45 FLo 32 F
Another late fall day as temperatures will not make it out of the 40s this afternoon. Temperatures in the 40s are more like late November then October. We will see temperatures begin to warm up though as highs should be on the 60s by the end of the week. Another weather system will move through late Friday night with temperatures dipping below average again on Saturday.

Back Again

2008-10-27T04:32:00.002-04:00

Well, we finally have something to talk about today!!! Also some other news as well and how I'm going to change things up here, (for the better I hope). My stations web site will be changing and there is not any space for our daily weather brief on the site right now, so I'm going to post a weather summary here in the mornings and then go into depth later in the morning. So here goes day 1:

Hi 44 F Lo 32 F

It's here...Temperatures have taken a major nose dive since last night and this trend will carry over into today. The other factor which is going to make your travels a little more tricky are the winds. Gusts of 30 mph will be common into this afternoon. Temperatures will continue on the cold side through the middle of the week with a nice warm up through Halloween. Saturday into Sunday it looks like temperatures will take another dip back into the 40s.

Those terrible step children

2008-09-09T05:18:00.003-04:00

Someone asked a question yesterday about El Nino/La Nina yesterday and whether the ocean cooling had an effect on our summer. The latest data shows the ocean temperatures are normal to a bit above normal right now. Usually the warming or cooling of Pacific Ocean has nothing to do with any other season. This season may have been effected by La Nina. We did see below normal temperatures over the summer months and certainly a bit of a drought the last couple of weeks. Right now it doesn't look like the La Nina will have an effect on the winter. But of course time will tell.

Getting very interesting

2008-09-08T08:32:00.003-04:00

Quite frankly it's been a really quiet summer for us and I really haven't been really motivated to blog about it. But...here we go with something pretty decent to talk about. Ike! How does this effect us? We'll maybe I've motioned it before here that a hurricane can really hold up our weather pattern and I think that could be a viable scenario for this weekend. Friday Ike is headed for south Texas.
As this storm makes landfall it holds together with a ton of moisture
It joins forces with a land based system and I'm interested in further development for us as we could see some heavy rains south of us through Sunday. You can still see some pretty warm temperatures for us as well as the 850 mb temperatures are about +12 Celsius.

Fay's here and she's got company

2008-08-28T06:35:00.004-04:00

Sometimes I look at a web site where this local kook analyzes local media. He loves to pick on weather people and insisted last week that the scattered storms on Saturday night were a result of TS Fay. After I spit out Diet Coke all over my computer screen and cleaned up the mess I thought a little about how many times we have actually seen tropical moisture here and quite frankly I can count the number of times we have seen significant precipitation on one hand. That could be changing though. I not hoping for a hurricane to make landfall, especially in Louisiana but if this scenario does occur we could have a better chance of this moisture getting caught in a system moving in from the west. Here's an interesting look at the possibilities:

Here is the 0Z Wednesday or Tuesday at 8:00pm. It has Gustav making landfall sometime early on Tuesday morning. You can see a surface front to the north so there's a small chance this moisture could get caught up in it and head our direction. Let's hope that's the case. Here is the other interesting scenario the models are creating. Hanna moves over Cuba late Tuesday and looks to be on track for the Gulf.

Amazing video of windsurfer

2008-08-19T05:47:00.002-04:00

You have got to see this video a windsurfer gets blown into a building. The amazing part is that the guy is going to be okay.

Are the leaves changing early

2008-08-18T08:04:00.002-04:00

I had a viewer call and ask this question about leaves changing colors early. While I have noticed this in some trees this fall I don't really think you can blame it on the weather. The scientific reason for change has always been the daylight hours getting shorter. So maybe some trees have their clocks on a little earlier schedule this year. Anyway, here's site that makes for some more interesting reading on the topic.

Happy Birthday NASA

2008-07-29T07:06:00.003-04:00

July 29
NASA Established to Explore Space
On this day in 1958, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was created by an act of Congress. NASA was formed to learn about and explore outer space. Since its creation, NASA has sent astronauts to the moon and satellites to the farthest planets of our solar system. NASA has also sent robotic rovers to Mars and over a hundred Shuttle missions into orbit around the Earth. NASA is currently working with other countries to build a space station.

This Day In History>>1958 NASA Established.............The United States Congress passes legislation formally inaugurating the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The establishment of NASA was a sign that the United States was committed to winning the "space race" against the Soviets. In October 1957, the Soviet Union shocked the world, and particularly the American public, by launching the first satellite into orbit around the earth. Called Sputnik, the small spacecraft was an embarrassment to the United States, which prided itself on its leadership in the field of technology. Sputnik also provided the Soviets with an important propaganda advantage in terms of reaching out to underdeveloped Third World nations that were looking for scientific and technological assistance. The initial U.S. response to this challenge was not altogether successful. The Eisenhower administration passed the National Defense Education Act that provided federal funds for improving the teaching of science and mathematics in America's public schools. In December 1957, the United States attempted to launch its own satellite. Named Vanguard, the "spaceship" got a few feet off the ground and then blew up. America had better luck with Explorer I a month later--the satellite completed its orbit of the earth. It was obvious to many U.S. officials, though, that a more organized and focused effort was needed. In July 1958, Congress passed legislation establishing NASA as the coordinating body of the U.S. space program. During the next decade, NASA became synonymous with the space race. In May 1961, President John F. Kennedy announced that the United States should set a goal of putting a man on the moon by the end of the decade. Eight years and billions of dollars later, Neil Armstrong stepped out of the lunar module Eagle and onto the moon's surface on July 20, 1969. The great space race was over.

Summer is tough sometimes...

2008-07-25T07:21:00.005-04:00

Believe it or not summer forecasts can be a tough call for several reasons. The fast moving wind patterns of the jet stream virtually disappear during the mid summer months. The forecast mathematical models want to bring in weather systems but many times these impulses get 'washed out' before they arrive. This week was a perfect example of forecasting 'gone bad'. The models want to bring cooler less humid air in next week and within two forecast runs the cool air is gone! So here's what the thinking is right now.

A couple of things to observe here. While we are going to see warm air here at +20 C very warm air to the west!
Warmer air on the move with an area of +25 C moving through Illinois
A trough sits across the area Tuesday afternoon with very warm air
Still warm but it looks like a bit of relief coming by late week.
A bit cooler with 850mb temperatures dropping to around +14 C

Back to Blogging

2008-07-23T05:13:00.003-04:00

I need to apologize to my regular readers, if I have any left. I will now be trying to blog more often and it begins with today's short post, at least to begin with. You need to check out a blog from former Fort Wayne residents as they are writing about a hurricane Bertha and their experience along the Gulf coast.

Funnel Cloud Video in KS

2008-07-10T08:17:00.002-04:00

Next round of storms

2008-07-08T06:02:00.006-04:00

It looks like another line of storms headed our way today. A fairly strong low pressure system for this time of year will push a number of storms ahead of it. There is a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon but it looks like the biggest threat is heavy rain. In fact, the QFP numbers for the area quite impressive bringing in .65 to around an inch.

Now for the mid range forecast. There's been some inconsistency in some of the models so far this week. Yesterday the European wanted to bring in very hot 850 temps in the +24 degree range. This morning things are much more moderate and quite frankly I like this solution better.

Friday will begin on the mild side with a strong weather system to the west, warm air along with thunderstorms are on the way Friday night.

Could be a stormy start to Saturday as most of the energy with this system is shifted north but I still see storm chances here.

Cooler and drier air makes things very comfortable by Sunday as 85o temperatures fall to around +14

850 temperatures continue to fall by Monday morning the are +8 Celsius

Lightning strikes

2008-07-01T05:49:00.002-04:00

And people are alive to talk about it.

Storm Damage Video

2008-06-30T07:22:00.003-04:00

Storm Damage in New Jersey

New Mexico Storm Damage

Another day another round...

2008-06-26T14:00:00.002-04:00

Here we go again. I'm not too worried about the first line of storms, but take a look out towards Iowa. This is not good news because it could mean some heavy rain for us. This has a classic set up for an MCS or Meso convective system or meso convective complex. Many recent studies have shown that our region is primed for these kind of storms for summer months. What makes them so interesting is that many times around here they have a nocturnal nature and seem to thrive on warm humid nights. While these systems can cause severe weather I think the main concern is going to be heavy rain. Just what we need right?

Second line

2008-06-25T11:26:00.003-04:00

There is a second line of thunderstorms, they're really not holding together too well but there is also an outflow boundary formed by the current thunderstorms which could be enough to spark some early afternoon storms.

Get ready for a pattern change

2008-06-25T09:33:00.002-04:00

Gone are those dry days and they will be replaced by several waves of low pressure moving across the the area. The first comes this morning. The good news for today is that the rain should end by early afternoon.

Finally Video Post

2008-06-23T05:30:00.003-04:00

Sorry about not posting the last couple of days, computer problems with every computer I own, Even at work!

Here is a funnel cloud in Houston:

Still the same

2008-06-18T06:16:00.002-04:00

Just like the old Bob Seger song goes "it's still the same". That's the pattern today although the northwest wind sometimes brings a little moisture our way but I think most of the moisture will be in the form of clouds. Temperatures with this northwest flow are going to be well below normal again with highs in the lower 70s, that's ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Last nights storm video

2008-06-16T07:22:00.004-04:00

Great shots of last nights storms. Southern Allen county clean up trees on cars!

Firefighters have to cut down trees in southern Allen county

Rainbow after the storm (Great Video!)

Cool Video

2008-06-16T05:35:00.002-04:00

Severe weather time lapse as weather moves towards Chicago downtown

Cool, Quiet and Calm

2008-06-16T04:22:00.003-04:00

After our first heat wave of the season we have our first cool down as well with a strong ridge of high pressure from the north influencing our weather pattern this week.

12z Wednesday (Wednesday morning) you can really see the cooler air settling in to the region. 850 mb temperatures are going to be around +2. That would put overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It also shows the depth of this high pressure.
Warmer high pressure remains in the plains with cooler air still lingering across northeastern Indiana on Thursday morning with +8.
Finally the warmer high pressure brings warmer air into the picture with 850 temperatures around +14. This will help temperatures climb into the 80s. Keep in mind that this also continues the quiet pattern across the region.
Saturday we will continue to see temperatures warmer but still on the quiet side. Highs will be in the lower 80s and we should still see manageable humidity values.
This is the first indication of a pattern change with very hot air starting to build across the northern Rockies and the southwest. This warm air will eventually take us back to Summer so enjoy this little week long break.

Watch Cancelled

2008-06-13T17:27:00.002-04:00

Looks like everything has moved north and the area of precipitation to the south is not severe so Ohio and Michigan can have the severe weather. I beleive we've had enough of this stuff this week!