Significant snowfall possible: This is going to be an interesting event to follow over the next several hours. There is going to be a narrow band of heavy snowfall and it's up to the meteorological community to figure out where that line will be. Right snow it looks like the heaviest snowfall could be from Fort Wayne and north with anywhere from 2 to 7 inches falling. However, it all depends on the track of low pressure which has been diving to the south and will then make a northeastward track towards our area. The biggest questions now are how far north will the low move and will it be too far south for significant snowfall. Right now I don't have a definitive answer to those questions as every numerical model seems to have a different solution to this dynamic problem.

Here is what the general consensus of models and thinking is right now. The heaviest snowfall band should be across extreme northern Indiana over the next 24 hours.
Here's the interesting part, the track of the low pressure with the low tracking right through Lafayette and just south of Fort Wayne. This track is troubling since it puts the heavy snowfall north of the area. I believe that's why NWS has put most of it's emphasis for the 'winter storm warning' north of Fort Wayne.
Here is the position of the low by Sunday afternoon so you can see the northward track this system is taking.


Then it's just plain ol' cold: I won't spend a lot of time on this right now as we are dealing with this weekend's storm system. But needless to say bitter cold air will be here next week. We could see some below zero temperatures by the middle of next week.

Baby it's cold outside.

As I stumbled into the station in darkness at an hour too early to mention I found myself humming that old Christmas song "Baby it's cold outside". But I like the Will Farrell version better. Highs will not get out of the 20s today and believe it or not that's going to set a trend for the next several days.

It's going to get colder: It will cold on Sunday with 850 mb falling to -12! But take a look to the north and keep this in mind before looking below.


Bitter cold?
This is the release of the 'polar vortex' or the coldest core of air from the Arctic Circle. The coldest air will still be just a little bit north of our area. That said, it looks like -24 Celsius temperatures at 850 mb. Baby that's really cold

Lake Effect Snow Machine

Lake effect snow could be a problem
The lake effect snow machine could turn on later this afternoon with a good set up for some places around Fort Wayne to get some accumulating snow. Strong westerly winds will create a pretty good fetch and it will be slippery into this afternoon.

A thin layer of ice: As expected we are waking up to a layer of ice which is making things rather slippery. It doesn't look to be improving much with temperatures not getting above freezing anytime soon.

Colder and breezy: A change in pressure and a tighter gradient will whip up winds over the next 36 hours.
Here is what I am referring too with a tight gradient. The lines of equal pressure or 'isobars' are tightly packed on this surface map. This gives us an indication that we will see gusty winds with lower pressure. This windy situation will continue over the next 36 hours.

Looking ahead. Take a look at next week! Low pressure moves in and opens the gateway for some bitterly cold air. You can see the 850 mb temperature drops to -20. If this holds up with could be looking at single digit highs or maybe even colder. We need to keep looking at this as it looks like it could be a arctic outbreak for our region.

Precipitation headed our way: It looks like snow/sleet and yes freezing rain is headed our way this morning. There will be more to come tonight and tomorrow morning as well. Here's a loop of radar so you can see what's happening. For my take on the situation read the post below this one.

Could be a little messy: A southern system will really bring in an interesting situation over the next 18 to 24 hours. Heavier colder air will sit on the surface today and tomorrow with a weather system moves in from the south. This weather system brings warmer air in front of it. Instead of the warmer air coming down to the surface it will stay above the colder air and that creates a problem.

I've used this diagram before but it's worth a dusting off and using again. The higher pressure at the surface represents the colder air which is heavier and the low at 500 mb and 300 mb is warmer air. This is what we call an inversion, the opposite of normal with warm air not at the surface but at the lower levels of the atmosphere. The problem then is that we have liquid precipitation and freezing rain.

My best estimates right now is that we see snow late this afternoon followed by some freezing rain and sleet overnight turning to all snow by daybreak on Wednesday. Ice accumulations could be about a tenth of an inch early tomorrow morning before turning to snow. Could be a real mess.

Back to blogging

South meets north:


Two weather systems to talk about today. A pacific weather system and a southern system. The southern system can be seen in old Mexico. The Gulf of Alaska weather system moves into the picture as well across the pacific northwest west. Here is the problem, with the moisture from the south it will warm the upper levels of the atmosphere first. A shallow area of cold air sits at the surface and this sets up well for a period of freezing rain overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.


















It gets colder:



By Thursday morning it looks like some cold air is back into the picture with -15 Celsius air at 850 mb. This is short lived as more moderate air comes into the picture by Friday.