Short term thaw: Temperatures will continue to be above freezing through midnight tonight ahead of a weather system which will bring moderately colder air overnight as rain will slowly changing into snow. Temperatures will dive into the lower 30s as highs Wednesday and stay that way for the remainder of the week.
The Weekend: Another interesting pattern setting up for the weekend as Saturday we will still be dealing with high pressure which moves to the east coast. The movement of this high will allow for a southerly air flow pattern to begin setting up for the weekend. You can see on this image that 850 mb temperatures are still fairly cold on Saturday morning.
Sunday morning your eyes should be drawn to two things one is the large scale low pressure which is moving from the southern Rockies to the Plains. The second is the large red blob that indicates extremely cold air dumping into the northern Rockies. This is the core of the coldest air and has a temperature of -24 C! The big question here is when does this shift to the Great Lakes Region?
As the low moves across Wisconsin on Monday you can see that the cold expands into Minnesota and the Dakotas. Rain will change to snow and it looks like the cold air will be back here by next week.

Snowfall from the last 'clipper' that moved through the area.

Week begins with a thaw: Temperatures will warm ahead of a southern weather system. We'll see warm air advection overnight tonight and into tomorrow ahead of the weather system with cooler air coming back into the picture tomorrow night. Temperatures will fall overnight back below freezing and the rain will change to snow. You can see this weather system across the 'four corners' area temperatures are +16 Celsius

As the system approaches on Tuesday morning we will see temperatures about +2 Celsius. So above freezing. This system is different because it's not a 'clipper' or northern system and it will not bring abruptly colder temperatures behind it.


Quiet rest of the week:

You can see the cold air just to the north of us, but the good news there really won't be a northern weather system to pull it down for the rest of the week. So temperatures will stay in the 30s, at least for a while.

Winter Weather Advisory

A Bitter cold 'clipper' type system is moving across the area today. Take a look at a couple of things here. Look at the placement at the low by the end of the day. It is east of our area, but still a little too far north for a heavy snowfall. The other variable today are cold temperatures. Remember the warmer the temperature the more water it holds. So temperates in the 20s will bring higher ratios of snow but also smaller snowflakes. In other words the dendrite ice crystals will stand up a little more but because the temperature is colder the snow will not have as much water content and there will be less snow. Hope that makes sense. The cold air will continue to be a problem for this week with minus 16 Celsius at 850mb. That's mighty cold!

Bitter cold BLAST: The coldest day of the season is coming in early December as the Arctic Circle has been opened and cold air is freely streaming into our area. Temperatures will continue to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

The Weekend: Another weather system comes from the north on Saturday, you can see it dragging cold temperatures down along with it .

One Sunday the gateway to the bitter cold air is opened up again and we see highs just getting into the middle 20s. You can see very cold air which follows the path all the way to the arctic. Temperatures don't moderate much at the 850 mb level with -15 Celsius.

Bitter Cold Weather Picture: Bitter cold air is moving in across the region as a cold front that formed in Canada moved through the area last night. This front will bring falling temperatures through the region this morning with a strong northwesterly flow off Lake Michigan which will create clouds and maybe some light snow over the area.
Round Two: There really is no break from the cold as another cold front from the north comes in over the week. This is another 'clipper' type system which may give us some light snow accumulations across the region with more snow to the north.
Through the weekend: It doesn't look like much of a rebound for the weekend either as highs will only be in the 20s.

What to watch out for:
For one it looks like bitter cold air will once again be dumping across the area. One thing to look for on this model is the bright red color. This is the core of the coldest air and has a temperature of -24 Celsius! Also low pressure is coming from the north again. While the track is not conducive for heavy snow light accumulations are certainly possible.

Continued bitter cold on Sunday as we have gateway opened up to the Arctic Circle.

Forecast complications

Forecast Challenges: Certainly some forecast challenges over the next 24 hours and beyond. The first is how much snow tonight with this "clipper" system? Well a couple of thoughts, many times clippers bring in their own moisture. It also depends on how quickly it cools. I don't think one to two inches is out of the question north of Fort Wayne since that area will be in the snow for longer because it will cool off faster. Here's a look at one of the numerical read outs we see at the weather center. 081203/2000Z 14 20010KT 38.7F RAIN This line tells us that at 20z or at about 3pm we will begin to see rain. 081204/0600Z 24 30010KT 32.2F SNOW. This line tells us that around 6z on December 4th (or 2am) we will begin to see the snow as temperatures will reach the 32 degree mark.





Thursday: The end result after the snow will be the cold temperatures. With some sunshine we should be able to just squeak into the lower 30s.





Friday through the weekend: Another clipper system comes in. I think it's going to bring some warm air and some snow but I don't really like the track of this system for heavy snow.

Here is a look at the end of the day Saturday. The low is just a little two far snow for a big snow. But that cold air certainly will make a presence.

Next Week: Next week we may be looking at a very interesting situation. A system to our south approaches the area. If we get the right track on this one we could be looking at significant snowfall. The temperatures are another matter, they got to be a little colder then depicted here.