Friday, June 6, 2008

Tornado Watch Issued for area

Here we go again. Allen County is on the eastern edge of this one. Here's the latest SPC discussion: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IND...LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061738Z - 061900Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN LAST SENTENCE

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z.

AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD REMAINS
STRONG...AXIS OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
IS LIFTING MORE NORTHWARD THAN NORTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY A GRAZING
INFLUENCE OF FORCING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS MAY AFFECT MUCH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. BUT...THIS PROBABLY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AS WARM SECTOR
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COULD SLOW CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS BECOME
ESTABLISHED...STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS /IN EXCESS OF 50
KT/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID STORM MOTIONS. COUPLED WITH STRONG TO
EXTREME...BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL....LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ...TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME
THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT THOUGH...WITH LINES OF STORMS LIKELY
INITIATING NEAR LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

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