Friday, July 25, 2008

Summer is tough sometimes...

Believe it or not summer forecasts can be a tough call for several reasons. The fast moving wind patterns of the jet stream virtually disappear during the mid summer months. The forecast mathematical models want to bring in weather systems but many times these impulses get 'washed out' before they arrive. This week was a perfect example of forecasting 'gone bad'. The models want to bring cooler less humid air in next week and within two forecast runs the cool air is gone! So here's what the thinking is right now.

A couple of things to observe here. While we are going to see warm air here at +20 C very warm air to the west!
Warmer air on the move with an area of +25 C moving through Illinois
A trough sits across the area Tuesday afternoon with very warm air
Still warm but it looks like a bit of relief coming by late week.
A bit cooler with 850mb temperatures dropping to around +14 C

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