Temperatures will once again take a dive into the lower 30s by the end of the day. Light snow will also be seen but accumulating snow is not likely for most of the area. As a weather system moves across the area today it will take temperatures down and change the wind direction. Gusty northwest winds will bring accumulation snow to the Warsaw and Wabash area, lake effect snow will also be seen in Noble county. Look for the snow showers to subside this evening.

Head spinning forecast

Okay,hold on to your hats! December-like temperatures today with highs in the lower 30s. Almost unbelievable when you realize that normal highs for the time of year are in the upper 40s. The good news today is that the lake effect snow machine will shut off. Plain and simple here: Lake effect snow is caused by cold winds along a warm lake. November is a prime time for this to happen as the lake is still very warm and of course we get cold enough temperatures. Let's delve into the models a little here.
This is the 850 mb chart for Thursday at 7am. It shows more cold air to our north as we see -14 Celsius line across northwestern Indiana.
Here is the 7am Friday picture. That -14 Celsius line is across the entire Great Lakes region. So temperatures will be similar to what they are this morning. The lake effect snow machine will turn on again today as well.

Now let's zip ahead to Monday at 7am. 850 mb temperatures are +8 Celsius! There is also a southern low across the area which means rain and mild temperatures. So much for a mild winter eh! But just take a glance to the north. The cold air is not too far away.

Temperatures will be rather cold today as highs struggle to get above the freezing mark. In case you are wondering these high temperatures are not close to normal. Our average for this time of year is about 47 degrees. Temperatures will slowly rise ahead of another front which will drag some arctic air in Friday. By next week temperatures should be above or around average with rain coming Monday.

Still on track

It looks like arctic air that I've been promoting this week is still on track. Let's take a look at the model data. You can see a 'gateway' opening up here across the plains on the eastern slopes of the Rockies.

You can see the -18 line through Iowa by 12z (7am) Saturday morning.
You can see the coldest air is shifted over the Great Lakes region by early Sunday morning. So that means cold air advection through the day on Saturday and most of the day on Sunday. That's why I have consistently kept highs in the 30s. If we do see a high in the 40s it will be before sunrise on Saturday morning as temperatures will fall into the middle 30s by the afternoon.

Then round two on Tuesday as another -20 Celsius line moves into the Great Lakes. Look for some lake effect snow.

A bit of a trade off today as temperatures will be in the 50s but clouds and rain will be across the area. Breezy southwesterly winds will also be a problem through the afternoon. This warmer airmass will be across the state through tomorrow afternoon before an arctic weather system turns temperatures sharply colder for the weekend. Highs will only be in the 30s Saturday and Sunday.

More than one shot of cold air

Winter will come early...Not only this weekend but if the models of choice are correct it could be early next week as well. Take a look at what happens on Saturday.

850 mb temperatures are -6. That's pretty cold for this time of year. You can also see the gateway of cold air from the Arctic Circle is opened up across the plains. This comes into play later by early next week. It's even colder by Sunday morning with 850 mb temperatures around -12! That's why I think we'll see lows in the teens Sunday morning. I have to qualify that prediction by saying that if we have clouds it won't get quite that cold.
Then there's Tuesday of next week! You want to talk cold air. How about -16 C. Ouch!

Clouds will shroud the area with showers as a southwestern weather system will bring in some moderately warmer air into the picture through the end of the week. But don't expect this pattern to last much longer as a northern system will turn temperatures sharply colder by the weekend. Highs will be in the 30s and lows could be in the teens.

7 Day Forecast

Today
High: 49°Low: 42°
Rain
THU
High: 58°Low: 45°
Showers
FRI
High: 57°Low: 34°
Cloudy
SAT
High: 38°Low: 17°
Light Snow
SUN
High: 37°Low: 26°
Light Snow
MON
High: 41°Low: 22°
Cloudy
TUE
Cold
High: 36

Here we go again

I love this time of year! When forecasts are so much different. We'll it's happening again and here's my rational and factual evidence of the chilly weather possible this weekend. My friendly ECMWF model is coming in very cold with -6 850 mb temperatures by Saturday morning.
And take a look at this: Yep -12 by Sunday morning, if you thought this morning was cold look out. (Although the clouds may keep the temperatures up on Monday morning)

A real winter like feeling in the air this morning as temperatures are in the 20s. The clear skies will bring a sunny start but clouds will increase as a weather system comes from the southwestern U.S. This system will bring warmer air through the end of the week, but it will also bring some showers. An arctic weather system will move in from the north over the weekend taking temperatures down into the 30s.

Another in a string of unbelievable warm days for the area as highs will be in the 70s. That over 20 degrees above normal and once again close to record setting. A strong weather system continues to build to our west. This western strom is going to bring November temperatures along with it. Highs will drop into the 60s on Friday and into the lower 40s for the weekend.

I think it's about time to get into our analysis mode. I'll try to put something together today using that old standard European model.

If you were to vote for a perfect today would likely be your choice. Temperatures this afternoon will be almost 20 degrees above normal. Highs will continue to be well above normal through most of the week. Thursday night a very strong western system will begin to bring temperatures down. Friday highs will be in the middle 60s and it will be a breezy and much colder start to the weekend as temperatures will fall into the 40s!

Get ready for some September-like weather! Temperatures will soar into the 70s this afternoon. These temperatures are about 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs will continue to soar through the middle of the week but by the middle of the week our flow changes to more of a northern flow with highs falling into the 50s on Thursday and the 40s on Friday and through the weekend.