Green or Global?

Okay, I know I get some oddball comments for this post, but this opinion is shared by many of us who have degrees in atmospheric sciences. I don't know if I go to the extreme that John Coleman does but it certainly is a good read. Mr. Coleman is the founder of the weather channel, so he has some impressive credentials. Here is his take on global warming.

Closed low moves out

A much better looking weather picture for the next several days. We have been dealing with a couple of anomalies which keep clouds and showers around for quite a while. First let's talk about a closed low or cut off low. Here is the definition from the National Weather Service:

Cutoff Low

A closed low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft (i.e., retrogression).

"Cutoff low" and "closed low" often are used interchangeably to describe low pressure centers aloft. However, not all closed lows are completely removed from the influence of the basic westerlies. Therefore, the recommended usage of the terms is to reserve the use of "cutoff low" only to those closed lows which clearly are detached completely from the westerlies.

so basically we talking about low pressure that doesn't have jet stream winds to push it along and unlike most weather systems which move through within a day and the weather improves quickly the next day. This part of the country is plagued with these kinds of low pressure areas and they get stuck in the doldrums of very little movement in upper air winds of the jet stream.

From Dan McAfee in Fort Wayne. Nice pictures Dan!

Temperatures Tumble to Begin Week

A very chilly start to the day but southwest winds are going to bring in some warmer air with highs moving into the 50s. But the biggest problem for the next two days is going to be the rain. Showers will continue to be pushed northward by stubborn low pressure which will move gradually to the east over the next 36 to 48 hours. Most of the next two day will be kept in the clouds as well.

You can see the low parked across the area and that's the main factor for today and tomorrow. You can also see the QPF which is bringing in about another .50 to 75" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon.

Mild air will finally be moving in across the area today as a smaller 'bubble' of high pressure will set up in the Great Lakes Region
You can see on this surface map that there is a lot going on around us. Low pressure to our west and east, but finally some high pressure blocking any cloud cover and changing very little over the next 3 days. That's about all you can hope for right now as we have a very fast moving jet stream. Okay, so I know this is going to be a little mind expanding and I apologize for it in advance, but I wanted to show you the 200 mb chart. This is the place where the jet stream resides. You can see by the legend that we do have 100 knot winds pushing weather systems through very quickly. Right now that jet is driving the fastest moving air to the north. High pressure is also a factor in pushing this jet stream north. There's always been a debate in meteorology on whether the jet stream steers high and low pressure or low and high pressure steer the jet stream.

A bit better today

It will be a bit more moderate in the temperature department today with highs building into the lower 50s. There's still a stubborn area of low pressure to our east that will still bring clouds into the picture. If you have a chance to look at a looping satellite picture today do it. It's a great lesson in what low pressure is. I can talk until I'm blue in the face about the wind flow around low pressure and the fact that a 'cyclonic flow' moves air upward and that's how the process of cloud making begins. (Along with the water cycle process). But this actually shows that flow of air.

Another day of clouds and showers

Yesterday was pretty much as expected, gusty winds of up to 47 mph, heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts up to .75". Today is not going to be much different, a strong low pressure system will stay south of the state early today and into the middle of the afternoon with begin to move east. The low pressure is going to act like a pumping mechanism bring moisture up to our area through the day and overnight hours. Until this low moves east we'll continue to see gusty winds and showers.

After this weather system passes warmer temperatures are on the way. In fact, we could see highs top out in the upper 60s through the end of the week. Sunday and Monday look like a very different story.
Sunday another wave of low pressure comes in from the south. While it looks like warm air advection in front of this system it's another story by Monday morning.
You can see 850 mb temperatures drop into -6 to -10. That's moderately colder air for this time of year and we'll have to watch to see if this moderates at all over the next couple of days.

It's Back

For all who think I had forgotten how to blog you may be correct. Sorry for the lapse, I'll try to get a daily synopsis out here for you and open up for discussion. Today is a good day to begin, (again). We've seen a series of low pressure systems coming out of the southwest the last two weeks. A couple of things to watch with these weather systems.
I'm a little concern with the QPF map putting a 'bulls eye' right across the northern part of the state. It has 1.30" of rain. That's not good news as the ground is still saturated from the six plus inches we've had in the last 20 days.
Here is the surface analysis for today. You can see that low pressure is being forced north by a fast moving jet stream. This strong jet stream is left over from our cold winter and is going to be a factor through the early part of the spring and may linger into early summer. Because of these factors we could see some violent spring weather across the south. Don't be surprised to hear about more tornadoes across the south today and tomorrow.
Here is the jet stream pattern for this week. For today you can see there is a real dip across the central part of the U.S. This is being caused by low pressure which will bring quite a bit of instability to what we traditionally call 'tornado alley' later today.

For us, I think heavy rain is about as severe as it will get around here. You can see the jet stream improving and moving north later in the week. That will be the return of high pressure which will greet us with sunshine after tomorrow.