Ice Storm Pictures

Here are northern Kentucky ice storm pictures. The ice storm was followed by 3 inches of snow. Credit goes to my former intern and now weatherguy in Bowling Green Kentucky and his father.

Snow...Let it End...Snowfall totals right now are about 5.7" at Fort Wayne Airport. In other areas south of Fort Wayne the heaviest snowfall we can find is approaching six inches. The snowfall cut off is really the northern side of Allen county. The north side of the county getting about 3". Eastern and northern counties to Fort Wayne getting about 1" so the cut off is very sharp. The snowfall should end by the middle of the morning. The line of snow is quickly ending across the western side of the state.

Let it Snow? Snow is back into the picture here and it's a tricky little system. Let me explain my thinking by first pointing to why the weather service is forecasting a heavy snow. One of the numerical models is putting out 5 plus inches for the Fort Wayne area. The GFS-NAM model is putting this information. Many times I see this model over-doing precipitation, especially with snowfall forecasts. Here is my thinking on this one.










You can see in the 48 hour 850 mb plot that the low which will be responsible for this storm is well across the Northeast. I don't believe it travels far enough to the north and east for us to get into the heaviest snowfall. In fact, I put it on more of a Cincy to Buffalo track. This would bring snowfall in but would relegate the heaviest snowfall south of Fort Wayne. Maybe Bluffton on south ward may get 4 inches of snow. South of that especially in the Muncie are we could be looking at about 6"

Here is one of the models we use here at the weather center it's called Addonis and we call it Futurecast on TV. It shows the low across southern Kentucky. More importantly it takes it on a southward track.

Take a look at this snap shot early Wednesday morning. The track takes it south of Columbus, Ohio. That would put the heaviest snowfall south of our area.










Cold air will be back after that through Friday morning as 850 Celisus temperatures drop to around -12 degrees.

Arctic air coming in for another visit: Let's enjoy today and early tomorrow as much as we can because that unwanted relative from the north is coming in for another visit.
You can actually see the mild air coming for a visit today with 850 mb temperatures near +3! Okay, so here's the other shoe...and it's big one. This usually happens ahead of an arctic weather system as that gateway to the north will be opened by another 'clipper' type weather system moves through the area and changes the flow to a north flow which opens up that arctic gateway.
You can see the cusp of the cold air moving in late Friday behind the clipper system with temperatures of -14 to -22 Celsius coming into northern Indiana by Friday evening.
It's not the core of the coldest air but it is certainly formidable as the coldest air (-50 C) sits in southern Canada and northern Michigan. But a couple of things really don't bode well for a quick moderation in temperatures. One is that the cold air is moving across an area which snow covers the ground. That makes it nearly impossible to moderate temperatures. The other is that the core of cold air is not far from the air mass we will be experiencing.

Cold start: We are not seeing the bitter cold air that we saw last week, but still moderately cold with 850 mb temperatures around -16 Celsius. So even with sunshine it's doubtful that we will make it past 20 degrees this afternoon.

You can still see the arctic still opened up through Tuesday morning. That gateway will allow for another cold day Tuesday as well.

Mid-Week Warm up:
On Thursday morning you can see the cold air retreat up towards northern Canada. The gate way closes a bit with warmer air coming in. The core of the coldest air is back in the polar regions of the world.

Another Shot of Cold Air: It doesn't last though with another 'clipper' system coming in on Friday with snow chances and especially more cold air. You can see the low the moves across Ohio and to the east coast.

The core of the coldest air comes down from the north again to southern Canada. This is a little troubling as we will see cold air through the weekend. Not as cold as last week but still very cold. A word of caution here, this is the only model carrying the cold air. As usual we'll wait for the other models to come around to this solution.

Wind Chills

Wind chills: Before we talk about today's weather I want to blog about wind chills. I hear people get really excited about wind chill temperatures and how cold it is. I want to remind you that wind chill is a value or perceived temperature. The formula has been changed recently because the old formula was based on water and not on exposed skin. Just for fun here is old and new the formula.

Wind chill temperature = 35.74 + 0.6215T - 35.75V (**0.16) + 0.4275TV(**0.16)

In the formula, V is in the wind speed in statute miles per hour, and T is the temperature in degrees Fahrenheit.

Note: In the formula, ** means the following term is an exponent (i.e. 10**(0.5 ) means 10 to the 0.5 power, or the square root of V), - means to subtract, + means to add. A letter next to a number means to multiply that quantity represented by the letter by the number. The standard rules of algebra apply.

For reference, the old wind chill formula was:

T(wc) = 0.0817(3.71V**0.5 + 5.81 -0.25V)(T - 91.4) + 91.4

Source for both formulas: The National Weather Service

By the way wind chill only applies to people and animals not objects.

Snow is heavy Snowfall has been surprisingly heavy this morning and it looks to continue for a few more hours early this afternoon. Snowfall amounts at the station are close to 3 inches. It looks like we could see anywhere from 3 to 5 inches from Fort Wayne south.

Another shot of snow: A clipper system will move across the area today. These clipper system have a couple of common characteristics. One, they bring limited moisture because there is no inflow from the Gulf of Mexico. The second is that they are fast moving systems.

Can it be too cold for snow? Nope it can snow at any temperature. As the temperature gets colder the snow grain gets smaller because the colder the air is the less moisture the air can hold.

It stays cold: You can see this red color on this 850 mb map. It depicts -26 Celsius. That's bitter cold.
The cold air stays in place through Saturday. Here's Saturday morning with 850 mb temperatures still -26 Celsius.

Watchs warnings all dropped

The blizzard watches and the winter storm warnings have all been dropped. In my humble opinion this thing has been over-warned by NWS. I sometimes feel like the middle man in this whole process. I can put together the best forecast in the world but if one guy sitting in North Webster disagrees with me then I have to at least mention the warnings and it turns into that old telephone game where the message at the end is much worse then intended. Some people think we issue the warnings, nothing could be further from the truth.

I know I have simplified this a little but the NWS does coordinate with other offices and sometimes they don't like the warnings either but you can have single counties in one region with warnings and when counties that connect to them don't have warnings. I understand the dilemma but it doesn't mean I like it. I guess we can chalk it up to the government and as you know nothing gets done easily or for that matter seamlessly by the Feds. Okay my rant is over. For a full discussion of today's forecast check below.

Bitter Cold Air is on the way... This may be the coldest air the season and it is going to come in with a fury this afternoon. Winds will gust up to 30 mph this afternoon. Highs will fall from the 30s into the teens by late afternoon. This dark red color represents -26 Celsius at 850 mb. This cold air is not the core of the coldest air but certainly not a glancing blow either. The other problem with this air is that it really will not be modified by the ground as it moves in across snow fields. It is going to be very breezy as well.

I know this surface analysis is a little messy but bare with me here. The isobars on the map are tightly packed with means some gusty winds on what we call a tight pressure gradient. That means the pressure is going to be changing. You will see barometric pressure of 30.30" and higher because cold air is very heavy.

It's here to stay: Bitter cold air will stick around.

Not only will the bitter cold air stick around it looks like another couple shots of snow as well. It's still cold with -16 Celsius temperatures at 850 mph by Saturday. It looks like cold air is not the only story. Another weather system will come in late Saturday and into Sunday.
You can see this system here as it will bring another chance of accumulating snow on Sunday.

Snowfall totals: blogging from Nashville, TN this morning where there is no snow at all of course. It seems like Allen county had about 1.5" a the airport and 3.5" near Dupont road in snowfall. North counties like Steuben had about 6.5" of snowfall. This one panned out about like a thought it would. Get ready for some bitterly cold air coming this next week. I'll blog more about it later, I've got to hear Dolly sing...:) (Kidding)

Still on track The latest Cobb model data shows about 4" total across the Fort Wayne area. Maybe six up north. That's a total I think I can land on. The snowfall we saw this morning was part of the warm front and the low itself which is still several hundred miles to the south. This system is going to create a real dry slot to the south of it and the moisture is all going north. I am still holding on the belief that the heaviest snowfall should be around Jackson to Lansing Michigan. I'll talk more about the scientific reasons for my thinking in a later post. Right now there is some hockey to watch! Go Komets.

Significant snowfall possible: This is going to be an interesting event to follow over the next several hours. There is going to be a narrow band of heavy snowfall and it's up to the meteorological community to figure out where that line will be. Right snow it looks like the heaviest snowfall could be from Fort Wayne and north with anywhere from 2 to 7 inches falling. However, it all depends on the track of low pressure which has been diving to the south and will then make a northeastward track towards our area. The biggest questions now are how far north will the low move and will it be too far south for significant snowfall. Right now I don't have a definitive answer to those questions as every numerical model seems to have a different solution to this dynamic problem.

Here is what the general consensus of models and thinking is right now. The heaviest snowfall band should be across extreme northern Indiana over the next 24 hours.
Here's the interesting part, the track of the low pressure with the low tracking right through Lafayette and just south of Fort Wayne. This track is troubling since it puts the heavy snowfall north of the area. I believe that's why NWS has put most of it's emphasis for the 'winter storm warning' north of Fort Wayne.
Here is the position of the low by Sunday afternoon so you can see the northward track this system is taking.


Then it's just plain ol' cold: I won't spend a lot of time on this right now as we are dealing with this weekend's storm system. But needless to say bitter cold air will be here next week. We could see some below zero temperatures by the middle of next week.

Baby it's cold outside.

As I stumbled into the station in darkness at an hour too early to mention I found myself humming that old Christmas song "Baby it's cold outside". But I like the Will Farrell version better. Highs will not get out of the 20s today and believe it or not that's going to set a trend for the next several days.

It's going to get colder: It will cold on Sunday with 850 mb falling to -12! But take a look to the north and keep this in mind before looking below.


Bitter cold?
This is the release of the 'polar vortex' or the coldest core of air from the Arctic Circle. The coldest air will still be just a little bit north of our area. That said, it looks like -24 Celsius temperatures at 850 mb. Baby that's really cold

Lake Effect Snow Machine

Lake effect snow could be a problem
The lake effect snow machine could turn on later this afternoon with a good set up for some places around Fort Wayne to get some accumulating snow. Strong westerly winds will create a pretty good fetch and it will be slippery into this afternoon.

A thin layer of ice: As expected we are waking up to a layer of ice which is making things rather slippery. It doesn't look to be improving much with temperatures not getting above freezing anytime soon.

Colder and breezy: A change in pressure and a tighter gradient will whip up winds over the next 36 hours.
Here is what I am referring too with a tight gradient. The lines of equal pressure or 'isobars' are tightly packed on this surface map. This gives us an indication that we will see gusty winds with lower pressure. This windy situation will continue over the next 36 hours.

Looking ahead. Take a look at next week! Low pressure moves in and opens the gateway for some bitterly cold air. You can see the 850 mb temperature drops to -20. If this holds up with could be looking at single digit highs or maybe even colder. We need to keep looking at this as it looks like it could be a arctic outbreak for our region.

Precipitation headed our way: It looks like snow/sleet and yes freezing rain is headed our way this morning. There will be more to come tonight and tomorrow morning as well. Here's a loop of radar so you can see what's happening. For my take on the situation read the post below this one.

Could be a little messy: A southern system will really bring in an interesting situation over the next 18 to 24 hours. Heavier colder air will sit on the surface today and tomorrow with a weather system moves in from the south. This weather system brings warmer air in front of it. Instead of the warmer air coming down to the surface it will stay above the colder air and that creates a problem.

I've used this diagram before but it's worth a dusting off and using again. The higher pressure at the surface represents the colder air which is heavier and the low at 500 mb and 300 mb is warmer air. This is what we call an inversion, the opposite of normal with warm air not at the surface but at the lower levels of the atmosphere. The problem then is that we have liquid precipitation and freezing rain.

My best estimates right now is that we see snow late this afternoon followed by some freezing rain and sleet overnight turning to all snow by daybreak on Wednesday. Ice accumulations could be about a tenth of an inch early tomorrow morning before turning to snow. Could be a real mess.

Back to blogging

South meets north:


Two weather systems to talk about today. A pacific weather system and a southern system. The southern system can be seen in old Mexico. The Gulf of Alaska weather system moves into the picture as well across the pacific northwest west. Here is the problem, with the moisture from the south it will warm the upper levels of the atmosphere first. A shallow area of cold air sits at the surface and this sets up well for a period of freezing rain overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.


















It gets colder:



By Thursday morning it looks like some cold air is back into the picture with -15 Celsius air at 850 mb. This is short lived as more moderate air comes into the picture by Friday.