Friday, January 9, 2009

Significant snowfall possible: This is going to be an interesting event to follow over the next several hours. There is going to be a narrow band of heavy snowfall and it's up to the meteorological community to figure out where that line will be. Right snow it looks like the heaviest snowfall could be from Fort Wayne and north with anywhere from 2 to 7 inches falling. However, it all depends on the track of low pressure which has been diving to the south and will then make a northeastward track towards our area. The biggest questions now are how far north will the low move and will it be too far south for significant snowfall. Right now I don't have a definitive answer to those questions as every numerical model seems to have a different solution to this dynamic problem.

Here is what the general consensus of models and thinking is right now. The heaviest snowfall band should be across extreme northern Indiana over the next 24 hours.
Here's the interesting part, the track of the low pressure with the low tracking right through Lafayette and just south of Fort Wayne. This track is troubling since it puts the heavy snowfall north of the area. I believe that's why NWS has put most of it's emphasis for the 'winter storm warning' north of Fort Wayne.
Here is the position of the low by Sunday afternoon so you can see the northward track this system is taking.


Then it's just plain ol' cold: I won't spend a lot of time on this right now as we are dealing with this weekend's storm system. But needless to say bitter cold air will be here next week. We could see some below zero temperatures by the middle of next week.

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