A slippery morning and after that...There is a freezing rain advisory early this morning but it looks like warming temperatures by mid morning above the freezing mark.
Flooding a concern: Flooding could be a problem through the day tomorrow especially by late day as we'll see showers and maybe even some thunderstorms which are in what we call the 'warm sector' of a weather system. This warm sector could produce temperatures in the 60s by tomorrow afternoon.

Arctic air for the new year: I wanted to show you something I've been following this week. First the GFS model picked it up and the model I like to call the King of Cold air the ECMWF is coming in with some cold air next week. It may not be as deep as the cold air we saw last weekend but it is certainly something to watch. Here is the start of it with that violet color moving in.
Temperatures by Thursday morning are -10 to -16 Celsius that could be really cold to begin the new year.

Merry Christmas to all and to all a gusty night!: Winds are gusty at 45 mph at the airport and at some of our other weatherbug stations. This is all part of a weather system which is bringing a quick drop in temperatures this afternoon and tonight. In fact, overnight lows will be in the teens tonight. It looks like it will seasonal cold temperatures for Christmas day with winds dying down.

Still looking at Freezing Rain even though the temperature at FWA airport is above freezing. The arctic temperatures are responsible for that. Surfaces are still well below freezing. Remember what the definition of freezing rain is: Liquid precipitation that freezes on contact with frozen surface. Not sleet which are ice pellets falling from the clouds. Ice pellets are actually closer to snow showers.

Above freezing temperatures right now. We are seeing temperatures of 33 degrees at the airport and weather center. Let's hope this warming happens quicker then expected.

Rough night: I just got done looking at the latest model run and I don't think there's good news in the short term. We will have freezing rain beginning by early evening here. We are already seeing it across Muncie and Jay county Portland area and the warm air is doing exactly what we thought it would do; over ride the cold air which is still at the surface. The good news if there is any here is that temperatures will warm overnight and we should be seeing temperatures above freezing in the morning. But the evening is not going to be a "cake walk' with freezing rain for at least 4 maybe 6 hours and ice accumulations up to .3"

This is kind of strange. I'm working a double shift today so I'll update in the evening as well. I take early tomorrow morning off though. It is looking more and more like an ice storm at least for about 4 to 6 hours tomorrow night. The problem once again is going to be the warm air over riding the colder heavy colder air on the surface. Even though high pressure on the surface will be moved to the east the cold air is stubborn and it will take a while to move. I think from Fort Wayne south we'll see ice accumulation and to the north about 3 to 6 inches of snow. So you could see snow in the north Allen county and ice in the southern part. Stay tuned it's going to be a bumpy ride over the next several hours.

First the ice and now the bitter cold: It looks like one more bitter cold day with temperatures in the single digits with partly sunny skies. Lows will be below zero for another night. You can see this huge area of high pressure. This is what we call a cold core high.

*Can be shallow or deep: most intense at the surface (due to cold/dense air) and weaken with height if away from source region. The upper levels will show a deep trough if the polar air mass moves into mid-latitudes. Cold core highs are deep near their source regions*Precipitation generally lacking near cold core high center*Covers a large spatial area*Produces synoptic scale surface subsidence*Develop over high latitude land.

So basically the cold polar air gets trapped at the surface while the warmer air which has a lower density and pressure rides above it, making for a dome which sits across the area.

Some relief?

I apologize for the complexity of these models today. My normal site where I love to get data is down this morning. These are 500 mb heights with surface pressure. The thickness value which I have derived off these models through the end of the week has moderating temperatures. Here's the problem though, we could still see some warm air overriding the frigid air on the surface for some freezing rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night. After that we should begin to see warmer air.

More Pictures of the ice storm

John McGauley from the blog A beautiful city has some very scenic shots of the ice storm. Thanks John. I'll be posting my thoughts on this weekend here in a couple of hours if you want to check back.

Pictures of the ice

Here are some pictures Kelly took this morning. This ice has stuck to vegetation and there are thousands without power. The wind and ice are a lethal combination. .30" of ice accumulation so far.

Still a real problem. We are still looking for ice accumulation through the early morning hours with temperatures not getting above freezing until 8am this morning. Kelly Greene has taken some pictures and we will upload them for you in a couple of minutes.

It's all rain now but temperatures steadily are going up. Now we see highs near 29! The low pressure is making it's way through southern Indiana and will be through our area in the next couple of hours. This will bring temperatures above freezing by about 8am this morning which will mean the end of this event!

Still looking at heavy rain with sleet from Fort Wayne to the south. We are getting reports that it is all snow north of Fort Wayne and all ice south. It doesn't look like we are going to see temperatures rise above freezing for a least another several hours. Probably around 8 to 9 am this morning.

Getting Slick Out There!

Just getting reports now that the freezing rain is starting. It's all liquid out there and roads are getting very bad around southwest Allen County and Huntington County. Waynedale in the southwest part of Fort Wayne is reporting heavy Freezing rain. This is getting really bad. I am posting another update on WANE.com as well as going on the air every 15 minutes.

Going to get worse

Right now we are still seeing mostly a sleet, snow mix but within the next hour we should begin to see all liquid and that means freezing rain will begin sticking. We could see up to 2 tenths of inch an hour for the next several hours making for a really dangerous situation.

Just starting here

Right now at the station I'm just starting to see sleet. It wasn't liquid yet, (which is really good news). I'm not holding out hope that it's all going to be sleet as the middle atmosphere warms it's going to turn to liquid.

1AM Update

Here at the weather center. The Live Doppler Fury is showing a moderate band of rain to the south with temperatures still in the lower 20s. It looks like it will be a tough several hours as I think we are already seeing heavy ice accumulations possible through the mid morning hours. Heavy to moderate rainfall is just moving into southwestern Allen county and is saturating southern counties include the Warsaw, Wabash, Marion Portland and Bluffton area. The Muncie temperature at this hour is still just below freezing at 30 degrees. Come on warmer temperatures! I don't think we are going to be that lucky. I'll be live again on WANE TV at 1:30 and I just posted a new video with a new Futurecast that supports my theroy that we'll see Freezing rain through mid morning on WANE.com. Here's a loop of Live Doppler.

Significant Winter Storm: After a quiet day it looks like anything but quiet tonight. A winter storm bringing ice and snow is on the way. This one is a little complicated though.
Here is the breakdown right now. There is an Ice Storm Warning from Fort Wayne and to the south and a Winter Storm Warning north of Fort Wayne. It looks like the hours between 10pm tonight and 9am tomorrow morning will be touch and go especially south of Fort Wayne. Temperatures are going to be the biggest problem. Temperatures will get above freezing by about mid morning tomorrow, but before that is when areas from Fort Wayne south could see ice accumulation.
North of Fort Wayne: North of Fort Wayne could see some ice accumulation but more than likely the closer you get to the border of Michigan the more the ice will turn to snow. Around Steuben county we could see 3 to 4 inches of snow before morning. Usually the heaviest snow is just north of the ice storm. This situation will evolve over night and I'll try to blog out the storm for you.
The Weekend: Another winter storm will head our way. This one is coming from the south but will essentially open up that gateway to the Arctic Circle again.
Here is a look at the storm tomorrow afternoon. It is sitting across Texas. This storm will bring moisture our way on Sunday. One thing I'm not crazy about is the track of this low. It looks too far north to bring heavy snow to our area. However, it could bring some snow in front of the system, (what I like to call on-slaught snow). It is also going to bring very cold temperatures into Monday.

A White Christmas? Yes Virginia Santa is going to bring a white Christmas.
Here is Monday, ouch this is cold we'll be lucky to see temperatures in the teens this day and we could go sub zero for the first time as well.


Here is Christmas eve morning, it looks like another southern system will bring some light snow. Once again, I'm not thrilled with the track for heavy snow, but I'm sure will see some fresh snow on the ground.

A bit of a break: The snow and freezing rain will end for today but temperatures will remain on the cold side as we see the calm before another storm heads our way. Highs will be in the middle to upper 20s this afternoon with clearing skies tonight and the snow on the ground it looks like lows could be in the single digits in some locations.

A rough Thursday night and Friday morning?
Low pressure is making it's way northward by Thursday night and Friday morning. Most of the time that means warmer air for us. But this is kind of a complicated pattern as warm air will override the cold air at first and this is a set up for freezing rain.

Here's a couple of diagrams to explain this:

The pink represents snow on this diagram with the blue the warmer middle atmosphere. As the snow falls it melts in this middle atmosphere and then falls as rain (the green). As this liquid touches the freezing surface it freezes on impact and that's what the definition of freezing rain is. Many people think freezing rain is what is know as ice pellets or sleet.
Here is a temperature profile as the snow melts then falls into a freezing layer and because rain is not pure water, (it's actually a solution of dust and water) it doesn't freeze in the lower atmosphere and stays liquid until it hits a freezing surface then turns to ice.

It looks like freezing rain will be short lived as temperatures will rise into the 40s by Friday morning. They will quickly fall by Friday afternoon and the rain will change to snow.

The Weekend:

Another blast of colder air will bring temperatures into the 20s again but in the process to opening the gateway of cold air from the Arctic Circle. Southern moisture is coming in Sunday with a system moving across the plains by afternoon. It will quickly move across our area by Sunday evening. As far as heavy snowfall, this track is going to limit very heavy snowfall but it will turn bitterly cold.

You can see the bitter cold air coming in by Monday morning with 850 mb temperatures at -16 Celsius.

The Cold Reality: Not only is the bitter cold a problem this morning but another weather system is moving toward the area from the south. You can see this system just moving into the pan handle of Texas early this morning. The question on these weather systems is always the track, or which way the system will move. If it moves far enough north it could bring an accumulating snowfall to the area.

This model shows that the track of the low is through the southern part of the state and it looks like it will be far enough north to get some snow in northeastern Indiana. Interestingly enough one of the numerical output models I use has about a half an inch of snow. So it looks like this one is going to be close with most of the snow to the south.

As the week goes on: It should be rather quiet through mostly of the rest of the week, but Friday is a different story.

This the situation on Friday. Warm air ahead of a weather system has highs near +9 that could translate to about 49 degrees on the surface. So it will begin as rain on Friday, but much like the last system that moved through the area yesterday there is some cold air and we could be seeing snow by Friday night.
You can see another southern system moving north, but this time temperatures will be cold enough for some accumulating snowfall.

Then it gets very cold as bitter cold arctic air brings 850 mb down to -17 C. This will mean teens and 20s as highs to begin the week next week.

A big fall in temperatures today! High temperatures have already been reached this morning as we see rapidly falling temperatures to our west. Temperatures have falling into the single digits and teens to our west in Illinois. A very tight pressure gradient will cause the gusty winds to continue through out the day and into this evening. Here is a look at what's going on right now:

I want you to look at two things here. One is the low pressure and the lines around it called isobars. See how close they are together? That tells us that we are going to see gusty winds across the area today. The other thing is that bright red color across the plains. This low pressure has opened the gateway to the arctic circle and we have the core of the coldest air being felt over the plains this afternoon. Temperatures will fall well below zero through tomorrow.

Tuesday Storm System: Watch this storm system across the south it is moving rapidly towards us and will be here on Tuesday night.

Here is Wednesday morning. As the storm comes in Tuesday night we could see the mid levels of the atmosphere warm up while the surface stays at freezing. This is what freezing rain is all about as liquid sticks to an already frozen surface.



The rest of the week.
Highs will actually be around normal through Thursday with another storm coming our way on Friday. This is where is begins to get interesting.

Another southern weather system comes into the picture. It looks like rain and temperatures in the upper 40s again but we will see a drop by late afternoon. (Much like today).

Sunday looks very interesting as the cold air which will spend the week in the plains will finally make it way toward our area. Temperatures will only be in the 20s through the afternoon.

The cold reality: Temperatures will dive today as a gateway to the north has been opened up overnight because of a weather system that moved through the area yesterday. 850 mb temperatures here (in the purple color) are sitting at -16 Celsius this morning. That's really cold!







The weekend: A large scale weather system is still on track to move into our area by late Sunday.




You can see the warmer air still ahead of this system with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Also some very breezy conditions as those isobars are tightly packed together here. By early Monday this system is pushed north but does it's job by opening the gateway to colder air from the north by late in the day. You can see the core of the coldest air dumping across the plains.
Fortunately the coldest air retreats and we are going to see moderately colder air across the region.

A bit of a cool down: A quiet day with temperatures near normal in the middle 30s. However, a weather system moves in later today and into tonight with colder air filtering in behind it. The front will change our flow from the southwest to the north which will take highs today down to the upper 20s tomorrow. Here you can see the northern low as it takes most of the energy north but...
You can see the colder air get dragged down to the south. The core of the coldest air, (the red color) shows the extremely cold air is not far away.


Interesting start next week: A huge weather system is moving through the plains early Sunday with some warmer air ahead of it. Take a look at how closely the isobars are packed together. This what is called a 'tight gradient' in meteorological terms. It means there is a big change in pressure and it is a red flag for the forecaster that there will be some gusty winds. The slope becomes pretty steep ahead of this weather system as cold air is allowed to dump into the plains while the warmer air gets forced into the Great Lakes area.
Moderately cold air moves into the area by late Monday and into Tuesday.

Temperatures Tumble Things are getting back to normal today as highs will actually fall with cold air advection all day. Temperatures will fall from early highs in the 30s back into the 20s by this afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty especially before noon and the northeast winds will keep temperatures down overnight as well as temperatures fall into the lower 20s.
Quiet for a couple of days: A couple of things to point out here. A big weather system in the southeast will rob the moisture from a small clipper type system moving to our north. Not going to rob the cold air though as temperatures. That cold air will be felt on Friday as you can see we get the -12 Celsius line across the area by early Friday morning.
Warm and wet weekend? A large pacific system moves in by Monday. You can see temperatures are way up as the +8 line is well across our area. So that means rain and warmer temperatures.
Still warm ahead of the weather system but you can see the cold air is on the way and it looks like this next warm up is also going to be short lived.