Thursday, January 31, 2008

Noon Update

Okay here's the latest. The 12z (7am) NAM qpf run. Here's the Cobb NAM run for Fort Wayne. It has some light snow at 2pm. The heaviest snowfall will be at 4am through about 10am Friday morning. The snow is cut off by 7pm tomorrow. Now you know a little bit about how the National Weather Service makes up it's mind about timing this snowfall. In fact, we were all waiting for this run to see if this storm was staying on track. I think these snowfall totals a little bit more in line with what we will be seeing. It looks like the low is not as strong as expected and is moving a little more to the east. That said, still in line for some decent snowfall with the NAM topping out at 10.5". I'll update again later this afternoon.

5 comments:

Joe said...

I just wanted to let you know I really enjoy your blog. I really like the level of detail you go into and how you analyze the data you get. I tend to be a bit of a weather junkie (at least when school is in) and think it is wonderful to have a good, detailed look at the area's weather. Thank you so much.

Bob G. said...

Got a quick question, Greg:

Is this going to be a "dry" snow, or a "wet" snow?
(and you know what I'm referring to).
I'd much rather shovel "dry" snow...any day. That's why I'm asking.
It's a "getting older" thing.

;)

B.G.

Greg Shoup said...

Thanks Joe, I just am trying to take folks through what I go through to make a forecast each day. And on days like today a little more!
Bobby,
I generally think this is going to be a wet heavy snow. Temperatures when the snow is at it's heaviest are close to 30. For a brief time we will have 17:1 ratio snowfall and there is some 15:1 but overall, especially by tomorrow morning when the snow will be the heaviest it will be at 12:1 event which means heavy wet snow.

Johnathan Brouwer said...

I too enjoy your perspective as a broadcast meteorologist. On average how many different sources do you have to look at before you feel comfortable broadcasting your opinions?

Greg Shoup said...

Usually about 200 different model panels on a normal day. On a day like today I am probably looking at another one hundred additional micro model outputs. In my opinion the more weather data the better.