Take a look at this....

Here is the 4:45pm NWS Doppler. Snow already in the northwestern part of the state. This shows the low is still on the same track we've been discussing.

18Z Data

The 18Z (1pm) run is in and has kind some interesting stuff. The new NAM, much like the previous run wants to take the low a little farther east. This would certainly diminish snowfall totals and take us down to about 7.5". Meanwhile, the GFS is putting northern Indiana right on the bulls eye and keeping the previous track and keeping FWA in a heavy snow band of 10.5". I think it will fall somewhere in between. I'm a little suspect about the further east track that the NAM all of the sudden is taking this system. The GFS (can I have some wood to knock on) has been consistent for the last several days. GFS and consistent usually are not words that I would put together in one sentance. The GFS has been very consistent with the system even more so than my personal favorite the European. Remember earlier in the week the European was takning the track further north and it has come around to the GFS solution. So I'll stick with the GFS and still think 6+ inches for most of the area is a good call.

Noon Update

Okay here's the latest. The 12z (7am) NAM qpf run. Here's the Cobb NAM run for Fort Wayne. It has some light snow at 2pm. The heaviest snowfall will be at 4am through about 10am Friday morning. The snow is cut off by 7pm tomorrow. Now you know a little bit about how the National Weather Service makes up it's mind about timing this snowfall. In fact, we were all waiting for this run to see if this storm was staying on track. I think these snowfall totals a little bit more in line with what we will be seeing. It looks like the low is not as strong as expected and is moving a little more to the east. That said, still in line for some decent snowfall with the NAM topping out at 10.5". I'll update again later this afternoon.

Why do we forecast snow so far in advance

A comment yesterday is a good point for discussion especially with this next storm headed our way. A reader asks why we forecast snowfall better then 36 hours in advance. Because the models are not perfect and the track changes sometimes. I think this is a good point to discuss here on a post instead of just posting a reply in the comment section. So JQ here it goes: First off let me say that I have always had a hard and fast rule not to forecast any snowfall totals more than 36 hours in advance. As you know our forecast models get much less gridded information past 48 hours so past that we are forecasting on the track more than qpf. Let me back off a little and tell you that the model development has been on hyper speed especially over the last ten years. Because of the advances made in computer power and speed the development of models has accelerated as well The accuracy has jumped expedientialy as well. So to say anything about what has happened 'over the years' would not be a fair assessment of what has happened recently. Because of speed and accuracy it has allowed us to give much more advance warning of impending storms. But the most difficult part of a storm to forecast is always the moisture. That's a tricky proposition even when the storm is in progress across the area. If you go back and look at forecasts, very few times are there total 'busts' where we will forecast heavy snowfall and nothing happens. What normally happens is that a narrow band of very heavy snowfall is across an area and light amounts around it. The biggest problem is run into with viewers is that they believe a forecast is a bust if they don't see the heaviest snowfall in their backyard. Twenty miles away we may see the heaviest snowfall, but because it didn't fall at their house then the forecast was wrong. Microcasting has now become an art, with taking weather the global to your backyard. So I think the advance warning is worth it, even if the heaviest snow may be 20 to 50 miles different than the actual forecast.

Thursday Morning Update on Winter Storm

It looks like things are still on track for some heavy snowfall over the next 36 hours. Finally the track has stayed consistent from model to model over the last 4 runs. That's 48 hours. Here's how I think things will shake out. Yesterday I was blogging about the track of the low coming up from Louisiana. This track will take the system right through Indianapolis and then towards Toledo. So the big question is where is the narrow band of the heaviest snowfall. Well, as usual I think the breaking point is right around Fort Wayne. It looks like the area around Fort Wayne and north will see all snow while areas to the south will see the dreaded icy mix. Because of this sleet mix it really knocks down the snowfall. The last qpf is really wet coming in with this storm system. As usual this is a bit over done. Take a look at these snowfall totals. In a perfect scenario the latest NAM numbers bring 16.3" of snow to the Fort Wayne area. This output is usually too wet and doesn't account for sleet so the likely output for this system will be about 7 to 10" in the Fort Wayne area. South of Fort Wayne it gets a little dicey. The sleet knocks snowfall totals down to around 3 to 6". The closer you get to the low in central Indiana the more of a mix. I'll keep you updated with blogging throughout the day.

The Latest on our next storm

If you've watching the Internet or television then no doubt you have seen the Winter Storm Watch. So here is my latest thinking. Since I updated from earlier this morning the new qpf is putting much more moisture into this storm. You might remember from my earlier post that I was questioning why the track seemed really positive for heavy snow but the qpf was really very limited. In comes some new output which puts about 8 to 10 inches across the area. Before you go to the store and buy out the bread and milk section you may want to read on. My concerns are that each new model run the track has been taken more north and northwestern track. This worries me a bit because the farther north the track the more of a mixed precipitation we get. The rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow mix can really kill totals in a hurry with a winter storm. So don't put me on the band wagon for a huge snowfall Thursday night and Friday. I will tell you that the European does take the track right through central Indiana which would still put us on a favorable track for snow. So more waiting for more model runs and more data before I jump up and down and scream winter storm. Here's the model I'm talking about. You will notice that the track goes from Louisiana to New York state over a 12 hour period.

Possible tornado is southern Indiana

Here's video from a possible tornado is southern Indiana. Local authorities are saying they pulled two bodies from the mobile home and are reporting several instances of down power lines. Just click on the video section.

The Friday Forecast

Okay, now on to Thursday night and Friday. The positive side of this next weather system is that this bitter cold air will move out quickly! This system is coming from the south across the central part of the state. That track always gets my attention. As far as the qpf or moisture with this next system? Well it is not impressive yet, here is what I'm looking at so far. Right now it looks like the heaviest snowfall will be overnight Thursday into the pre dawn hours of Friday morning with the moisture available now it looks like about 1 to 3 inches. The National Weather Service is already putting a Winter Storm Watch out for this storm. The track does favor 6 to 10 inches but the moisture is not showing up on the models as of yet. I guess it's going to be a wait and see situation.

Welcome to the great white north

I've blogged about this before but it is always humbling to see the drastic changes in the atmosphere. Last night we had temperatures in the lower 50s this morning we are near zero! What was the cause of this drastic cold wave? Take a look at 850 mb temperatures this morning Another thing I could not believe last night was how quickly temperatures dropped. In fact, at 8pm the temperature was 31 in South Bend while it was still 50F in Warsaw and 52F in Fort Wayne. Within two hours the temperatures dropped into the 30s in the Fort Wayne area.This morning temperatures are in the single digits with some lows around zero. Temperatures will continue their plunge downward. But it will be a quick drop as temperatures will moderate quickly by tomorrow afternoon.

What about Friday

Yesterday Cathy had a question in the comment section about whisperings of a winter storm on Friday. While it difficult to concentrate on the next storm with all that will be happening here over the next 24 hours I'll try. Yesterday I commented that I didn't think it would be a weather maker for us because of the inconsistent performance of the GFS model. The ECMWF or European model had low pressure moving too far north for my tastes. Well, talk about a 24 hour turn around. Here's what I woke up looking at this morning. You can see the placement of the low by 7pm Friday. With this set up we could look for some accumulating snow. Here's why.

*Placement of the low, this low is coming from the south, it has lots of moisture and it is on a favorable track for accumulation snowfall. I'm going to continue to watch this next system, but as I said before it's difficult to think past the next 24 hours.

A Lot to Talk About

Temperatures and winds will be the major issues to deal with over the next 24 hours. Highs will drop from the 40s into the teens tonight. That has prompted many advisories and warnings. A wind advisory for today with gusty winds of up to 45 mph and a winter weather advisory for tonight. That's just another way of saying that temperatures will drop from the 40s to teens in very short order. Here is a look at what we call the qpf or quantitative precipitation forecast.
It looks like most of the precipitation will fall as rain but we could see a quick inch of snow as the temperatures drop overnight, just in time to make things a little slick tomorrow morning.What a day it will be with highs in the upper 40s. But that's just the beginning of a rough next 24 hours. A bitter cold weather system is just out to our west
So now its time to get a bit philosophical. One of the first things you learn about in meteorology 101 is how the Earth is the great equalizer. The Earths atmosphere is constantly striving to have equal pressure throughout it's atmosphere. Because of winds and other factors like changes in topography of land masses equal pressure can never be achieved. So when the pressure drops or rises significantly, you will see gusty winds. Today is a great example of this process. Take a look at how tightly packed these isobars are on this map.

Interesting Week Ahead

It's time for the January thaw with impressive temperatures in the middle 40s to begin this week. Take a look at this model for today. Temperatures are increasing over the next 36 hours. This map showers temperatures of +8 C or 46 F! And that's at 850 mb. Even more impressive is the model for 12z or 7am Tuesday. Temperatures are once again warm, but take a look at this multi-contoured low. Why does it mean anything. Well first of all it's a major pressure change and secondly with the isobars tightly packed it shows a strong pressure gradient. So its also going to be breezy. Temperatures will take a big fall after this system moves through Tuesday night from the 40s into the teens. Here's what Wednesday morning looks like
highs will be in the twenties Wednesday.

The Blizzard of '78

When I moved here in 1989 I was besiged with stories about the blizzard of '78. Stories about people having to stay at work for days or homebound for several days. The most interesting part of this storm for me is of course the meteorology part of it. This is the 500 millibar A large upper air trough sat north of our area. This trough started digging into our region later in the day.
Meanwhile a on the surface a low pressure system to the south and another toward the north.
These two system phased together. This because of a very fast moving polar jet stream (150 knots) phased with a fast jet streak to move these systems together very quickly.
The mega system moved quickly toward the north. This resulted in record snowfall of 14 to 26 inches of snowfall. Fort Wayne ended the month of January with a record 60" of snowfall. Here's a couple of pictures from the National Weather Service from our perfect storm

Another brisk beginning

Okay I admit that I had to steal this picture of Tristan the wolf from Mike Prangley's weather blog. This picture says it all about today's weather.
Temperatures will be bitterly cold through the early part of today. Lows dipped to their coldest readings of the year! However, it's not going to last long. Another weather system will push this bitter cold air toward the east and we will see highs in the 30s by the weekend. A real Pacific pattern for us next week as highs will be in the 40s Monay and Tuesday before another surge of cold air comes in. Stay warm.

The Next Generation of Radar

In the late 80s the National Weather Service revolutionized the science of weather with it's upgrade from a 1940s radar to a high powered Doppler radar which not only took a picture of the reflectivity of precipitation but brought many more sources of data into view. It looked like kind of a 'cat scan' of the atmosphere with several algorithms and volume scans that gave us an indication of hail size and the formation of winds in the clouds that could cause damage as tornadoes or micro bursts (Straight line winds).

Now a new generation of radar comes into the picture. (And no I'm not talking about the over promoted snake weather system some are talking about). No this radar is called Dual Polarization radar or 'dual pole'. Here's a look at the difference. The National Weather Service will be updating to this new radar. As you can see by the image above it takes a different type of scan of the atmosphere. Because it scans horizontally and vertically it can do much more than the current radar systems. It detects size, shape and speed of precipitation. For instance it will give meteorologists a true depiction of rain, snow and sleet. In the past we would have to look at atmospheric conditions to tell us whether we were having rain or snow. Research is also being done in Indiana on this radar at Valparaiso University and is also being tested by the National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama.

A Nice Slap in the Face!

Are you ready for arctic blast number 2! Well ready or not here it comes. Here are temperatures from this morning at about 5:15 am in our area. 10.8 °F Angola MS : Angola, IN
10.0 °F Country Meadow ES : Ashley, IN
7.5 °F Maconaquah School Corporation : Bunker Hill / Peru, IN
15.0 °F Southeast ES : Decatur, IN
10.0 °F Edon NW Schools (MS/HS) : Edon, OH
16.9 °F Holland ES : Fort Wayne, IN
14.8 °F WANE-TV : Fort Wayne, IN
14.8 °F J.E. Ober ES : Garrett, IN
14.4 °F Northwest ES : Huntington, IN
12.9 °F Southside ES : Kendallville, IN
13.5 °F Ligonier Police Department : Ligonier, IN
14.1 °F West Noble HS : Ligonier, IN
15.2 °F Marion Local ES : Maria Stein, OH
14.2 °F Adams Central Community Schools : Monroe, IN
14.3 °F Monroeville ES : Monroeville, IN
13.7 °F New Haven HS : New Haven, IN
13.9 °F Norwell HS : Ossian, IN
5.3 °F Miami Co. EMA/Peru HS : Peru, IN
6.6 °F George M. Riddle ES : Rochester, IN
14.9 °F Westview ES : Topeka, IN
16.0 °F Van Wert Co. EMA : Van Wert, OH
15.0 °F Van Wert MS : Van Wert, OH
10.7 °F Lakeview MS : Warsaw, IN
12.3 °F Dekalb HS : Waterloo, IN
-2.0 °F Chicago-O'Hare International Airport : Chicago, IL
21.9 °F Cincinnati / Northern Kent : Cincinnati, OH
15.8 °F Defiance Memorial Airport : Defiance, OH
9.3 °F Grissom Air Force Base : Grissom Afb, IN
12.9 °F Indianapolis International Airport : Indianapolis, IN
14.0 °F Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport : Romulus, MI
15.1 °F South Bend Regional Airport : South Bend, IN
12.2 °F Municipal Airport / Kosciusko Hospital : Warsaw, IN
15.1 °F Ft. Wayne International Airport : Yoder, IN

Here's a link to look at these temperatures live. Arctic high pressure will be very much in control for us today. While that means clear skies for most of us. Areas along Lake Michigan. Winds will veer off the lake making what we like to call in weather terms a good 'fetch' The good news is that this arctic air mass moves eastward very quckly and begins to modify by tomorrow afternoon.

Ice, Ice Baby

Mary from Wabash sent me some icicles that took residence on her home. She writes that she reluctantly knocked them down so they wouldn't fall on anyone!

Thanks Mary.

Pattern Change

Okay, so yesterday I alluded to a big 'pattern change' taking place next week. It seems like we have little acronyms that we love to use, especially in disseminating weather information to the public. I hate to say it but this is one of my favorite phrases. Temperatures will turn 180 degrees by next week with highs in the 40s. Here's what it looks like. You are going to have to use your fortune telling skills here a little with me. The temperature here is about +2 C but if you look at where the pattern is coming from (the southwest) you can see by the southwest flow that the temperatures will warm to about +4 by the end of the day Monday. That will take temperatures up into the 40s. But you can also see something on Tuesday. A 'chunk' of the 'polar vortex' breaks off over Minnesota and so it looks like the warm up will be short lived.

It's Coming Again!

Just when we were beginning to thaw out its coming again. A polar weather system comes in later today. Here's what things will look like tomorrow morning. You may notice if you compare last weekends polar plunge it won't be as cold. This air mass is bringing in -18 Celsius which is a little warmer then the -24 C over the weekend. What that ultimately means is that we will see temperatures in the teens and lows in the single digits. We do have a bit of snow on the ground but I don't think its enough to really see the full effects of radiational cooling at night.

How about another?

Another what you ask, or maybe you just don't want to know. Okay no more suspense, another dose of cold air coming in Thursday. Tomorrow temperatures will cool some down into the 20s but another polar front comes into the picture by Wednesday afternoon and Thursday we will be feeling the results. Take a look at this model run from the European. It brings cold air, although not quite as cold as it was over the weekend into the picture. At one point during the day we will see -12 Celsius temperatures across the area. So I don't expect temperatures to get out of the teens Thursday. Fortunately it will move out pretty fast and we will be left with a more temperate pattern through the weekend with a huge pattern change next week. I'll blog more about the pattern change next time!

Send Your Pics In!

If you have any pictures of snowfall send them to me and I'll post them on the blog site. Greg.Shoup@Wane.com

The Atmosphere Always Humbles Me

Here is what we woke up to this morning. Okay, at least me. This is a snap shot taken at about 5:15 AM from our radar. You can see the heavy snow banding across the Fort Wayne area. Visibilities were down to about 1/10th of a mile. It was not so much the snowfall but the gusty winds blowing and drifting snowfall across the roadways.
So here's the humbling part. The atmosphere will always surprise you. You can study every model cross your T's and dot your I's but there are still many variables that are difficult to predict. Every inch of the atmosphere cannot be monitored so there are always things that happen that keep me on my toes. I think that's what makes the job fun.

Next Weather System

A weather system coming to the area overnight will bring some welcome changes. 1. Temperatures will actually increase as cold polar air will be pushed north and east. 2. We will see some light snow. This is where the debate begins. One of the forecast model called the NAM is bringing about .10 to .15 of an inch. This is going to be a bit confusing but I want you to look at a numerical output representation for this model. So what does this mumbo-jumbo mean? Well, if you scroll down in the snowfall column this model is cranking out very minimal moisture. However, it is also saying that this snowfall could be falling at a 15 to 1 ratio. That means that we could see 3" of snow if you believe this model.
Here are my concerns here. 1. The low pressure is too far north on the surface and at 850 mb.
2. The NAM is based on what used to be called the ETA. The reputation of the ETA and one of the biases that needs to be considered is that the ETA/NAM is always too wet. In other words it brings in too much moisture. So that's my analysis and I'm sticking with it.

We Survived!

I am always amazed when temperatures here are colder then traditionally colder parts of the world. For instance it was in the 30s this weekend in Alaska, Moscow Russia and Greenland. But that's what happens when the core of the coldest air is released towards North America. We really did not see the coldest air here but only the tip of it across northeastern Indiana. Well get ready cold weather fans because it's coming back! Temperatures will again be on the polar side as we see another chunk of cold air arrives from the Arctic Circle. You can see it here on this graphic which represents 850 temperatures.Here's the good news, this too is going to be short lived with this chunk of cold air pulling off toward the east and north in very quick fashion.

The MODELS and the Cold

Okay, so now is when you will see meteorologists begin to pull out their hair. (What little I have left in my case). I want to show you something that is really a huge pet peeve of mine. Before I get to my really infuriating model and web sites and the smoke is coming off my fingers as I am typing. This is one numerical representation of one model called the GFS. This is called the GFS MOS GUIDANCE You will notice that the numbers in this Guidance are no where near what I am forecasting or for that matter what the National Weather Service is forecasting. So what's up with that? The Guidance numbers are just that A GUIDANCE! They are numerical output empirically taken direction from the model from a computer. They haven't been touched by a human. So the meteorologist should investigate a little further. I've shown you the scientific evidence that supports my forecast for below zero temperatures. But this information is readily available on the Internet. The uneducated person could take this information think we (in the collective sense) are nuts. It wouldn't be the first time someone has accused me of being nuts by the way! The point here is that this is not to taken directly from the web page to a forecast. I have a saying in my house that my wife can mouth every time I say it, "Live by the MOS, die by the MOS". (The MOS Guidance).

So this plays right into the next topic I want to address. Don't use sites like Weather.com and Intellicast and compare them to the National Weather Service forecast or my forecast. I can see the shock on your face now. These Internet forecasts are just garbage. They are not looked at by a human and the mathematical process used on some of these forecast is seriously flawed. Let's take weather dot com for example. Sometimes the forecast for South Bend, Fort Wayne and Indianapolis are exactly the same. How can this be? We'll mathematical models are assembled with grid points, the more grid points the more accurate the models. This area has very few grid points on models like weather.com and many times you will see wild forecasts from this and other sites or they may not be able to forecast shallow cold air at the surface like this weekend. So please do me a favor and quit looking at these sites for your weather. I know that they are so readily available that it makes it really easy but you can really get burned if this is your only source of weather information.
Can't you see the smoke coming out of my ears and my hands?

Still On The Way!

Even though we are not at the center of the target we are still in the range of that dreaded arctic air. Here in northern Indiana we will be just on the edge of the coldest air. Take a look at this graphic representation
You will see that red color I've been pointing out over the past couple of days. This graphic represents 850 mb which is slightly above the surface. Temperatures will be -24 Celsius or -11 below Fahrenheit by Sunday morning. So here's what I expect will happen. The polar front will move in late this evening and temperatures will begin to plummet. We will begin tomorrow with temperatures in the lower teens but highs will quickly fall from there. The coldest air will be sitting across our area Sunday morning. Temperatures will slowly moderate Monday but It think there is another chunk of the 'polar vortex' that is apparent on this graphic which is the 850 mb from the European model for next Thursday. You'll notice that the intense red color representing the -26 Celsius line. So get ready for what is shaping up to be the coldest week of the Winter season.

What Kind of Weather Do I Like?

What kind of weather do you like? That's one of the questions I get quite often. For me its kind of a loaded question. Okay, so here's my selfish answer, I love Summer and if I could be by water or on a boat every day of the year I would not complain. However, that kind of weather would not be good for my business putting me out of work and with no money to enjoy sitting on a boat on a 80 degree plus day. So...I will tell you that I really enjoy the challenge of forecasting a big change in weather patterns, (like the one on the way this weekend). I enjoy the challenge of the extended forecast especially when I see a big pattern change coming. It's always a challenge and because of the inconsistency of the mathematical models a forecast can never be perfect. In fact, I can remember one professor telling me that the minute a forecast is published it is wrong, something in that forecast is incorrect. But that's what makes my job fun. Changes and challenges of everyday keep me on my toes. I will tell you one thing though the more I do my 'homework' the better prepared I am to forecast the change. There's no substitute for hard work and the more data the better. (Stepping off my pedestal!)

Its Still Coming...Update on the Cold

If you've been a regular reader of this blog you know that I've spent the last week lamenting about the bitterly cold air mass headed our way. I've done posts on the "polar vortex" which is the core of the coldest air in the world. While we are not going to see that 'core' we are still going to see a very cold air mass through the weekend. A couple of factors I wanted to throw out today for your inspection. Here's a look at what we will experience this weekend as per the ECMWF model or know by its nickname the European. You will notice that the intense red color represents the -24 Celsiuses line or -11 Fahrenheit. With a little snow on the ground we could see temperatures at night This duel with the Arctic Circle will end quickly with the bitterly cold air moving out of the area by Sunday night. However, It looks like some cold air regroups and moves in next week so temperatures are still going to be well below normal. (Normal is 31 this time of year).

Forecast Confab

Many times I get asked the question about how I put together a forecast. Some Art Bell radio program listeners believe there's some type of conspiracy between forcasters and even some government plot. I think there's an even small minority that think I can actually control the weather. Several years ago when I was working at another TV station I got a very interesting voice mail from a Golf Pro at a local course. The gist of the voice mail was that he did not want me talking about snow for the Easter weekend because that would cut down on his business. While I was in shock over his comments I know that forecasts do hold some weight over what plans people make. For example, during the Summer some businesses have told me that if I have a 90 degree temperature on my 7 day forecast they actually see a drop in their attendance even if we don't see 90 that day. It just seems like 90 is the breaking point, not 89.

My forecast is mostly an independent process but I do use material generated by National Weather Service computers so for anyone to tell you that their forecast is 100% independent would be a little suspect in my mind. That said, we don't sit down with our morning coffee and decide when we are going to put word out on a snow storm. My philosophy on forecasting a big event like this is that the more advance warning I can give you the better, even if it ends up being a day off or the track ends up differently.

I would be interested in you think about forecasts and the timing of things.

It's Still Coming But...

Some good news to share with you today. Even though we are still going to be bitterly cold over the weekend I don't think we are going to see the brunt of the coldest air. In fact, the actual 'polar vortex' that I was blogging about earlier this week will be making its way into the U.S. but mainly anchoring over Wisconsin and Minnesota. I want you to look at the map at the bottom of the page very closely. The core of the coldest air makes it way into that area not only over the weekend but the map you are looking at is for next week. It looks like the coldest air will be released again next week and if you look at it the temperatures will be near -34 Celsius which is -29 Farenheit! So I'm not really excited about warming the forecast up too quickly next week. I'm going to have watch the progression of this air to make a judgement about how it's going to effect our area next week.

Nor' easter

Northeast storm—(Also called northeaster, nor'easter.) A cyclonic storm of the east coast of North America, so called because the winds over the coastal area are from the northeast.
They may occur at any time of year but are most frequent and most violent between September and April. Northeast storms usually develop in lower–middle latitudes (30°–40°N) within 100 miles east or west of the coastline. They progress generally northward to northeastward and typically attain maximum intensity near New England and the Maritime Provinces. They nearly always bring precipitation, winds of gale force, rough seas, and, occasionally, coastal flooding to the affected regions. So this is the official definition of a nor'easter from the AMS glossary.
Many times what I find interesting about these storms is that they tend to get stronger as they head up the eastern coast line. This week a storm system moved across the Atlantic near the Carolina coast lines before heading towards New York and becoming a 'Mega' system when it hit New England. The Great Lakes region also made a contribution to this system as low pressure moved across the area quickly yesterday and joined forces with an already strong 'nor'easter.
So far snowfall totals are anywhere from 12 to 20 inches of snowfall.

A Glancing Blow

Remember my discussion about the dreaded 'Polar Vortex'? Well we are still going to see at least part of it and we will be feeling a real chill straight from the Arctic Circle. There's going to be a series of waves of low pressure that will move through the area finally bringing temperatures down into the single digits for the weekend. If you look at my forecast you will notice that I have temperatures down in the single digits and lows below zero. No one else has stepped in the that territory yet. (But is that really anything new!)If you look at the model which has performed best this winter it brings in -14 Farenheit temperatures by Saturday morning. If you account for some mixing which will take place and modify these temperatures a bit there's no other way to forecast it. One of my pet peeves is when forecasts keep changing, getting knocked down or up a notch each day. But my pet peeves could fill this blog each and everyday. So for right now it's going to be a 'glancing blow' of cold air which lasts just couple of days. Now, as you know this is not set in concrete, but I feel pretty confident we are going to see the seasons coldest air this weekend as the model I use most and is now becoming the model of choice for this event has been very consistant with the cold air. (As it's been all Winter so far).

The Politics of Forecasting!

Many years ago in my former life at another local station I was thrown into a role that really was beyond what I thought the job of a broadcast meteorologist entailed. Because of a problem with government funding it seemed as though Fort Wayne was not only going to loose a radar site but also its National Weather Service office. I had been elected to lead the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society so I took on the responsibility of getting a drive organized with public pressure and all the media. As you probably know the region did get a weather service office and a Nexrad radar site. It wasn't exactly the best site for Fort Wayne,but at least it gave some us protection during severe weather so we didn't have to depend on Indianapolis for our warnings.
During the process which created a huge response from the general public I was thrown into the political arena. Congressman Souder nominated me to chair a task force on Nexrad radar and there was even talks about congressional hearings here.
I can remember vividly one experience which is kind of like the commercial when someone hits you in the head because you should have chosen a different, more healthy drink. Mr. Souder and I were talking about where the radar and weather service office should be located. He remarked that it might not be in located in his district. (Now Kosciusko county and Elkhart are part of his district).
I remember saying that this is about science and not politics. At which time Mr. Souder quickly responded that everything involves politics.
Well so much for my bright eyed belief that there is pure science and that decisions in the scientific community are for the good of the science and not about politics.
And speaking of Global Warming! That's another 'can of worms' that is really more about politics than science. But that's also another post at another time. I don't know if I'm really ready to tackle this topic in my blog yet!

The return of the "POLAR VORTEX"

The Polar Vortex is a complex weather system that we don't like seeing in North America. It is an upper air circulation that brings extremely cold air to the area. This is when we get temperatures well below zero and it's now in the medium range forecast models to head our way by next Saturday.

This is a very interesting study to those who are interested. The "Polar Vortex" is an elongated area of low pressure which takes place in the eastern regions of North America. Sometimes we can go a Winter without seeing it but right now it doesn't look like that is going to be the case. Temperatures can be in simple terms BRUTAL with our 850 mb temperatures at -24! That's -11 on the Fahrenheit scale. Hopefully, if we do have to see this pattern it moves out fairly quickly. I can remember my first Christmas here in 1989 we had several days of below zero temperatures.

I love to forecast for big changes like this but I don't enjoy living in it.

Flooding Pictures

These pictures are of Rome City flooding sent to me by a viewer who lives near Waldron Lake near Westlakes Marina. You can see the flooding is quite extensive. Many areas near lakes, especially in the channel areas where waters filled the streets and parking lots with water. Many people are still stuck in their homes and not able to go to work.

Forecast Past 48 Hours

Jeff asked a question in his post about the value of a forecast past 48 hours. There are always changes so is it really relevant to use a 7 day forecast. Some meteorologists would say that extended forecasts are garbage and we should not forecast past 5 days because days 5 through 7 are always changing. My response is several fold but my first reaction is that the 7 day is useful past 48 hours since at least it gives people an idea of what the weather is going to be like in the future. Large weather patterns, i.e. big storms can be seen and that is useful.
So let's get to some numbers. According to National Weather Service statistics the 'skill score' for the seven day forecast without human input, (That's just numbers from the raw computer model) is 60%. So that in itself is useful.
Here's the problem for the meteorologist. Once we get past 48 hours the data is no longer layered and gridded and really turns into a wave chart. Many times we are talking about a weather system which hasn't even made land-fall in the U.S. So my other argument is that the medium range forecasting depends on the skill of the forecaster. I will tell you that my friends at the National Weather Service often times do not spend a great deal of time on medium range forecasts and sometimes do not use all model data available to them. Part of this is political and the other part an issue of time. I use a European solution which is run in England. I also run a Canadian model called the GEM. Many times during the winter the European model sees cold air days before the American model. In fact, this is going to be the case next week. The American model is not bringing Arctic air into the picture and the cold air it brings in is way too warm in my opinion. By Monday afternoon the European has the -15 Celsius line across northern Indiana. That tells me that we could see single digit lows Monday night and highs in the teens or 20s on Tuesday.
So just to summarize. My opinion is that the medium range models are useful and a big factor in the forecasts you see on TV but is all depends on the skill of the forecaster.

Solar Storms Increases

Okay, so many times people get my job mixed up with what I really do. Just because my title is Meteorologist does not mean I study outer space. In fact, Aristotle wrote the first book about meteorology about 300 BC. He wrote in his book meteorologica that meteorology was the study of the motion of meteors in the Earth's atmosphere. So in other words what we now call the troposphere which is a small envelope in the atmosphere where weather takes place. So I'm responsible for what happens in the Earths atmosphere and not beyond.
So now that we have that straight let's talk about the new solar cycle. This solar cycle will be know as Solar Cycle 24. This solar cycle began on January 4th when a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared. Solar cycles 'wax' and 'wane' every 11 years but scientists still don't know why one begins and another ends. They also don't really know what there has been a lull in activity since 2003. According to David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center; "New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.
So why is this anything we should care about. Well for one thing solar flares and storms disrupt GPS satellites and navigation. They also can disrupt weather satellites and cause radio blackouts in airplanes flying over the poles.
One of the cool side effects is that more solar storms means more auroas. That means we could be in for a great light show soon.
Thanks you to NASA for the information.