Many times I get asked the question about how I put together a forecast. Some Art Bell radio program listeners believe there's some type of conspiracy between forcasters and even some government plot. I think there's an even small minority that think I can actually control the weather. Several years ago when I was working at another TV station I got a very interesting voice mail from a Golf Pro at a local course. The gist of the voice mail was that he did not want me talking about snow for the Easter weekend because that would cut down on his business. While I was in shock over his comments I know that forecasts do hold some weight over what plans people make. For example, during the Summer some businesses have told me that if I have a 90 degree temperature on my 7 day forecast they actually see a drop in their attendance even if we don't see 90 that day. It just seems like 90 is the breaking point, not 89.
My forecast is mostly an independent process but I do use material generated by National Weather Service computers so for anyone to tell you that their forecast is 100% independent would be a little suspect in my mind. That said, we don't sit down with our morning coffee and decide when we are going to put word out on a snow storm. My philosophy on forecasting a big event like this is that the more advance warning I can give you the better, even if it ends up being a day off or the track ends up differently.
I would be interested in you think about forecasts and the timing of things.
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3 comments:
I never dreamed that anyone would call a meteorologist to complain that their forecast was hurting business. Weather is part of the news for a reason--and we expect our forecast, while admittedly based on a judgment--to be as accurate as possible, whether we like it or not. I don't like the thought of a frigid weekend, but I need to know.
I, for one am VERY glad you don't have some spinning wheel on the wall of the weather center with all the "possible" forecasts that you casually toss darts at to "predict" the weather...LOL!
(although I know that there must be some "Murphy's Rules of Meteorology" lurking about)
This weekend will tell who's got a GOOD vehicle battery...and who does NOT.
B.G.
(already bundling up)
Greg, I appreciate your "heads up" approach to forecasting. It gives my family and me a chance to prepare for a storm or the extreme cold. If it misses us, it will be a pleasant surprise. You and the rest of the News Channel 15 storm team are terrific.
Thanks
Rose
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