It looks like things are still on track for some heavy snowfall over the next 36 hours. Finally the track has stayed consistent from model to model over the last 4 runs. That's 48 hours. Here's how I think things will shake out. Yesterday I was blogging about the track of the low coming up from Louisiana. This track will take the system right through Indianapolis and then towards Toledo. So the big question is where is the narrow band of the heaviest snowfall. Well, as usual I think the breaking point is right around Fort Wayne. It looks like the area around Fort Wayne and north will see all snow while areas to the south will see the dreaded icy mix. Because of this sleet mix it really knocks down the snowfall. The last qpf is really wet coming in with this storm system. As usual this is a bit over done. Take a look at these snowfall totals. In a perfect scenario the latest NAM numbers bring 16.3" of snow to the Fort Wayne area. This output is usually too wet and doesn't account for sleet so the likely output for this system will be about 7 to 10" in the Fort Wayne area. South of Fort Wayne it gets a little dicey. The sleet knocks snowfall totals down to around 3 to 6". The closer you get to the low in central Indiana the more of a mix. I'll keep you updated with blogging throughout the day.
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