The MODELS and the Cold

Okay, so now is when you will see meteorologists begin to pull out their hair. (What little I have left in my case). I want to show you something that is really a huge pet peeve of mine. Before I get to my really infuriating model and web sites and the smoke is coming off my fingers as I am typing. This is one numerical representation of one model called the GFS. This is called the GFS MOS GUIDANCE You will notice that the numbers in this Guidance are no where near what I am forecasting or for that matter what the National Weather Service is forecasting. So what's up with that? The Guidance numbers are just that A GUIDANCE! They are numerical output empirically taken direction from the model from a computer. They haven't been touched by a human. So the meteorologist should investigate a little further. I've shown you the scientific evidence that supports my forecast for below zero temperatures. But this information is readily available on the Internet. The uneducated person could take this information think we (in the collective sense) are nuts. It wouldn't be the first time someone has accused me of being nuts by the way! The point here is that this is not to taken directly from the web page to a forecast. I have a saying in my house that my wife can mouth every time I say it, "Live by the MOS, die by the MOS". (The MOS Guidance).

So this plays right into the next topic I want to address. Don't use sites like Weather.com and Intellicast and compare them to the National Weather Service forecast or my forecast. I can see the shock on your face now. These Internet forecasts are just garbage. They are not looked at by a human and the mathematical process used on some of these forecast is seriously flawed. Let's take weather dot com for example. Sometimes the forecast for South Bend, Fort Wayne and Indianapolis are exactly the same. How can this be? We'll mathematical models are assembled with grid points, the more grid points the more accurate the models. This area has very few grid points on models like weather.com and many times you will see wild forecasts from this and other sites or they may not be able to forecast shallow cold air at the surface like this weekend. So please do me a favor and quit looking at these sites for your weather. I know that they are so readily available that it makes it really easy but you can really get burned if this is your only source of weather information.
Can't you see the smoke coming out of my ears and my hands?