Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Frustration with forecasts

One thing that never ceases to get my hackles up is when I get a viewer call, usually from an older person, who tells me that my forecast and the forecast on the weather channel don't agree. I've gone through here why it is a good probability that our forecasts will not agree, but I will give a short diatribe on this philosophy. Forecast models are based on mathematical problems and solutions. These 'models' are run on the fastest computers in the world which figure billions of problems and solutions a minute. The weather channel has their own model which is based on many grid points. However, in many areas these grid points are few and far between. Anyone who has lived here for any length of time knows that the weather is much different in the South Bend and Indianapolis areas, yet the weather channel 'scientists' fail to account for this and their models calculate large areas with single grid points. These forecasts are easily found throughout the Internet, television and even on local radio broadcasts. To be fair it's not just the Weather Channel doing this but Internet forecasts can be very unreliable and certainly frustrating to those of us who actually have our own forecasting methods. Oh well, off the rant for right now but I sure would like to hear your comments on this issue.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Greg---I often find TWC forecasts to be unreliable as well and check your blog (and Skilling's) daily!

While I'm here, are we coming back to somewhat of a La Nina pattern with wet followed by cold or is this more of a zonal flow?

Thanks for your work!

Greg Shoup said...

Thanks for your comment. La Nina is a December to March pattern so I really don't know if I would say that it is influencing our weather pattern right now. And thanks for coming to the blog!

Cathy said...

I don't just get my news from one source, nor do I get my weather forecasts. I might check The Weather Channel, Accuweather, Intellicast, NWS, and of course, local stations and you. Often, reading the forecast discussion on the NWS site gives me insight into what the range extremes of any forecast might be, because they often discuss the different models (as you do). Then, I just get prepared for anything!