A MULTI-MODE SEVERE DAY IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MO/KS/NORTHERN AR. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THE EAST-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMIDST A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAK CINH IN THE WARM SECTOR...SURFACE BASED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY STORMS...THE REALIZATION OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY/TIMING THEREOF IS SOMEWHAT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MO/IL/IND. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS/FLOW FIELDS WILL LEAD TO A MARKED SEVERE RISK EVEN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE MATERIALIZES...I.E. 500-1000 J/KG...IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. ASIDE FOR THE QUASI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE LEADING-LINE ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL...VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 80-110 KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL FAVOR BOTH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. BOTH WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LEWP EVOLUTIONS...A HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT /WITH 250-450 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN MUCH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ..GUYER.. 04/09/2008Wednesday, April 9, 2008
A MULTI-MODE SEVERE DAY IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MO/KS/NORTHERN AR. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THE EAST-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMIDST A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAK CINH IN THE WARM SECTOR...SURFACE BASED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY STORMS...THE REALIZATION OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY/TIMING THEREOF IS SOMEWHAT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MO/IL/IND. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS/FLOW FIELDS WILL LEAD TO A MARKED SEVERE RISK EVEN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE MATERIALIZES...I.E. 500-1000 J/KG...IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. ASIDE FOR THE QUASI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE LEADING-LINE ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL...VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 80-110 KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL FAVOR BOTH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. BOTH WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LEWP EVOLUTIONS...A HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT /WITH 250-450 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN MUCH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ..GUYER.. 04/09/2008
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