Showers and thunderstorms

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northern Illinois this morning. Some of these showers are convective so don't be suprised to hear some thunder a little later this afternoon. The flow right now is from the southwest so that's where the showers and storms will come from.

Spring Begins!

Finally Spring begins. Temperatures are above normal and moisture is abundant. I certainly didn't put this graphic out to test your vision this morning! What I want to point out here is the southerly flow, you can see the wind barbs all pointing south. You'll also be able to look at the notches on these barbs this shows the breezy winds we are already seeing across the region. The latest QFP is cranking out about 2.50" of rain!

You can see we are in the warm sector and seeing a plume of moisture which will be prevalent all day and especially into tonight.



Still in the warm sector today as the front looms closer that will bring the moisture closer as well. Very early tomorrow morning is when we see the heaviest rainfall possible and we also see the front get much closer.
Rain continues through about 7am tomorrow morning but it looks like temperatures will drop quickly behind this weather system.

Tapping into a lot of moisture

Not a lot of good news about next week and it looks like it will begin on Sunday. You can see abundant moisture building here and what looks to be very strong northern and southern stream systems.
This is really troubling here as an area of heavy moisture could move across the area by late Sunday and early next week. The blue color indicates areas of heavier moisture and it looks like it is being transported to the north.
This is troubling as well, deep moisture will move across the area late Sunday.
Hopefully, this deep moisture will be south of our area but it will be here through Sunday night.

Showers are gone...But

The cold air sticks around today. More coming up later this morning.

Interesting pattern setting up this morning. That southern stream is very active but it doesn't look like most of the moisture will make it north in time. Even though there will be some phasing of the jet stream it will not be able to transport this moisture quickly enough to get to the northern part of the state.


You can see how active things are on the current surface map. Two very distinct weather systems. Also a distinct difference in temperatures with plains seeing more snowfall.
By 1pm we are still seeing colder air streaming in from the north as snow will began flying across northern Illinois.
There is a bit of phasing happening here but you can see the cold air is now across northern Indiana with some scattered snow showers.

By the end of the day Friday it looks like precipitation ends with the weather system well to the south.
Very interesting pattern setting up on Sunday Morning. Although it will be quiet it looks like two distinct weather systems once again with a strong split jet stream flow.
Although things look warm to begin on Monday there is still a considerable amount of cold air setting up across the plains

Solar Flares

From Space Weather.com
SOLAR ACTIVITY ALERT: With little warning, three big sunspots have materialized and on March 25th one of them (989) unleashed an M2-class solar flare. This is the biggest flare of the year and it signals a significant increase in solar activity. The eruption also produced a coronal mass ejection (CME), but auroras are unlikely because the cloud is not heading toward Earth:

North vs the South

A very interesting pattern is setting up over the next several days. We are still seeing the effects from the La Nina pattern still in place. A strong southern stream system and northern stream system. Earlier in the week I thought we would tap into the southern stream by Friday, but right now it looks like the northern stream will dominate our weather through the end of the week.
Here is the model for Thursday where the southern system with lots of warm air looks very strong.
But that system gets pushed down to the south by a northern stream high pressure and a small low pressure trough that moves through. The area of low pressure will bring some rain or snow late Thursday and early Friday. While the main area of low pressure to the south stays in Texas.
By Saturday some cold air wraps around the area and we're off to a cold start.
Even though Sunday morning looks cold by Sunday afternoon temperatures begin to turn warmer but here you can see a very strong southern and northern stream with two very distinct weather systems developing.

Breezy Early Spring Day

It should be an interesting day and definitely a Spring pattern for the area as a northern stream system will drop down across the Great Lakes and bring some light rain but more importantly some breezy conditions. With the pressure change from low pressure to our west and high pressure to our east we'll see a strong pressure gradient set up across the area and that will cause winds gusting up to 45 mph through this afternoon. You can see the isobars and they are very close together indicating that strong pressure gradient today.

By tonight this pressure gradient begins to relax a little and you can see on the map the isobars are not tightly packed across the area. High pressure from the west quickly moves in and settles things down for several hours, at least until late tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Although tomorrow looks quiet you can see another northern stream front and several systems coming from the Gulf of Alaska which are moving very quickly across the U.S. That puts us in the flow of several quick moving waves of low pressure through the end of the week.
Here is Thursday morning which promotes a strong area of low pressure which is rooted in Texas and begins a northeast track towards our area later in the day Thursday.
By Friday this weather system brings warm temperatures, breezy conditions and rain on Friday afternoon before some cooler air moves across the region by Saturday.
By Saturday morning you can see some colder air wrapped around the low pressure as it moves toward the northeastern U.S.

Medium Range Forecast

Not a bad rest of the week with a big warm up in the south but still a lot of cold air building to our north. By Wednesday temperatures should begin to warm up with +4C on the 850mb.
By Friday afternoon a strong southern stream system with high pressure on the northern stream. This model is not phasing the two jet streams like the other models are so it's not as strong with precipitation for northern Indiana.
High pressure from the north moves in with -2c temperatures by Saturday, so even with sunshine temperatures should not get past the lower 40s. I'll see how this evovles as each day we are gaining more daylight.
You can see the two diverse and very active jet stream patterns here into next week. It will be interesting to see how these two streams come together by early next week.

Spring Like Week Ahead

For once we can talk about Spring temperatures. Even though temperatures will be a bit below normal today. A couple of systems will drop down this week into the Great Lakes area and by the weekend we may see highs back into the lower 40s. Really it looks like the full circle of weather this week. High pressure from the north will continue to clear skies for today. A weather system from the west will move toward the area by tomorrow afternoon and that should begin to increase clouds.
This northern stream system begins to bring clouds and showers across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Notice that these are rain showers, a sure sign of Spring.
Northern Wisconsin still will see some snow showers as this system moves into the Great Lakes region.

As the system moves into northern Indiana tomorrow most of the energy will be north so any showers we get should be on the light side.

*I will forecast the rest of the week later this morning.

Where did the snow fall?

Most of the snow fell north of Fort Wayne. There were some notable snowfall amounts as well. Here's a list of the snowfall amounts:

2.7 INCH WILLIAMS OHIO
4.7 INCH STEUBEN (Angola)IN

6.0 INCH BERRIEN MICHIGAN

9.5 INCH HILLSDALE MICHIGAN
3.6 INCH DE KALB IN

Snow Update

Temperatures are still hovering in the lower 30s which is really taking any chance of measurable snowfall out of the picture for the Fort. However, there have been snowfall amounts in LaGrange with about 4" on the ground. Southern lower Michigan has seen the heaviest snowfall with over 6". So it looks like the low has tracked north.

latest discussion

Latest Satellite Discussion

EVENT...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS S
WI/FAR N IL/SW MI.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING ALONG RATHER CLOSELY
WITH EARLIER HPC WWD GRAPHIC -(MAYBE JUST A HAIR TO THE NORTH) AND SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BEST TEXTURED CLOUD
ELEMENTS LINING UP WELL WITH METAR SNOW OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITIES FROM S CENT AND SE MN TO SW MI. RECENT TRENDS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED 850-500MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS AND RADAR RETURNS OVER N IL/S CENT AND SE WI. IN
RESPONSE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY HAS BEEN REPORTED AT STATIONS
SUCH AS MADISON(KMSN) AND MILWAUKEE(KMKE) IN SOUTHERN AND SERN WISCONSIN
WITH AT LEAST 1"/HR NOTED, AND CHICAGO-WAUKEGAN(KUGN) IN NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS. BELIEVE THIS REGION OF S CENT AND SE WI/FAR N AND NE IL
(LIKELY MORE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CHICAGO)/SW MI WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1"/HR RATES COMMON AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RATES EVEN APPROACHING
2"/HR PARTICULARLY IN THE USUAL BANDING FEATURES AND ALSO IN LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF SE WI AND EXTREME NE IL WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE EASTERLY
SFC FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD AID IN LOCALIZED SNOWFALL EFFICIENCY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE LOOP BOTH POINT TOWARD A VERY SHARP SOUTHERN
CUTOFF TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS DRY
SLOT PUSHES EAST ACROSS IOWA AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS S CENT AND
E IA AND ALSO JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO. THE APPROACH OF THE DRY SLOT COULD
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE CELLS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF IT WHICH AGAIN POINTS TO S CENT
AND SE WI/FAR N AND NE IL/SW MI. A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF SATELLITE
FEATURES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN
APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.

Light Snow

Very light snow being reported in the northern areas. Even though there seems to be good echos on radar the flakes are very small and much of it is evaporating before it touches the ground.

Messy Winter Storm

A very interesting pattern with this Pacific front that moves through the area today. Here is a snapshot at about 1pm this afternoon. Notice how the low has been shifted north a bit. Why does this matter? Well the track is very important to us because just a 50 trek to the north and we are looking at more rain then snow across Fort Wayne and shifting that line more towards the north.

By 1am this morning the low shifts to the south but it orginates across the north and it may be a little too far north for us to see a lot of accumulated snow across much of the area. The yellow line here indicates the track to the south where it changes to all snow. Unlike some of the other systems we've seen during the winter this storm is coming in on a more northerly track so it doesn't come in from the south and make that northeast turn, as it heads south we see the snowfall diminishing.
This is where it gets even more interesting, as we look at the Global Forecast Model it has the low across northern Illinois by 1pm this afternoon which is very similar to the track from the progs I just detailed above.
By the end of the day today the low is pushed north of Terre Haute. This sets off the alarm system for me because it's trending a little farther north then I would like to see for heavy snowfall. The 850 mb has it even farther north then the surface.
The low dives north toward Cincy by 2am Saturday. This will take us to snow and gives us a chance of some accumulation around the Fort Wayne area.
Now the European which doesn't change much from yesterday with the low across northern Missouri this morning.
This is notable by 8am Saturday this system pulls farther south
The late QPF had mostly rain across the area for today and most of this evening and is cranking out about 3" of snowfall for Fort Wayne tonight I think it will be a little less then that. Right now I'll have to lean more toward this GFS-NAM model forecast for the area today and tonight. While we could get a couple of inches of snow overnight, the biggest snowfall will be towards the Indiana/Michigan border, and maybe even farther north then that.

Still shaping up

The latest QPF for our area looking like mostly rain. I still think we could see a decent snowfall north of the Fort Wayne area. Moisture from this storm system is really being paired down as well.
NAM WRF

StnID: kfwa Model: nam Run: 20080320/1200 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.1

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||CumSR|TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR
==============================================================================================================
080320/1300Z 1 29007KT 33.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/1400Z 2 30008KT 37.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/1500Z 3 29009KT 41.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/1600Z 4 31012KT 43.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/1700Z 5 31014KT 44.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/1800Z 6 31013KT 45.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080320/1900Z 7 31014KT 45.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2000Z 8 31015KT 46.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2100Z 9 30015KT 45.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2200Z 10 31014KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2300Z 11 31012KT 41.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0000Z 12 32008KT 35.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/0100Z 13 32006KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0200Z 14 33005KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0300Z 15 34004KT 31.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0400Z 16 34003KT 30.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0500Z 17 32003KT 31.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0600Z 18 33003KT 30.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/0700Z 19 02004KT 30.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0800Z 20 04006KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0900Z 21 06005KT 30.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1000Z 22 09005KT 30.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1100Z 23 09007KT 30.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1200Z 24 10009KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/1300Z 25 10012KT 33.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1400Z 26 10013KT 36.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1500Z 27 10014KT 39.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1600Z 28 11015KT 42.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1700Z 29 11016KT 43.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1800Z 30 11017KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/1900Z 31 10017KT 45.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/2000Z 32 10016KT 45.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/2100Z 33 10015KT 45.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/2200Z 34 08016KT 43.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/2300Z 35 07019KT 38.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.035|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080322/0000Z 36 07020KT 34.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.071|| 0.11 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080322/0100Z 37 08021KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.102|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080322/0200Z 38 09021KT 32.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.098|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080322/0300Z 39 08019KT 32.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.122|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080322/0400Z 40 07016KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.189|| 0.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080322/0500Z 41 07018KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.031|| 0.65 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.03
080322/0600Z 42 06020KT 30.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.008|| 0.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.04
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080322/0700Z 43 07020KT 29.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.004|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.05
080322/0800Z 44 07019KT 28.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.004|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.05
080322/0900Z 45 07018KT 28.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.004|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.05
080322/1000Z 46 06018KT 28.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.008|| 0.68 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.06
080322/1100Z 47 06017KT 28.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.012|| 0.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.07
080322/1200Z 48 06017KT 27.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 7:1| 0.1 0.012|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080322/1300Z 49 05017KT 27.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 8:1| 0.2 0.012|| 0.72 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/1400Z 50 05017KT 27.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 10:1| 0.4 0.012|| 0.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/1500Z 51 05016KT 28.2F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 11:1| 0.5 0.008|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/1600Z 52 04015KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.5 0.000|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/1700Z 53 04013KT 31.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.5 0.000|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/1800Z 54 03013KT 33.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.5 0.000|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080322/1900Z 55 02013KT 34.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.5 0.000|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/2000Z 56 02013KT 34.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.5 0.000|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/2100Z 57 01012KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.5 0.000|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080322/2200Z 58 01011KT 34.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080322/2300Z 59 01009KT 34.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0000Z 60 36006KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080323/0100Z 61 34005KT 28.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0200Z 62 33005KT 26.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0300Z 63 32005KT 25.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0400Z 64 32006KT 24.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0500Z 65 31006KT 23.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0600Z 66 32006KT 23.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080323/0700Z 67 33006KT 23.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0800Z 68 33006KT 23.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0900Z 69 34005KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1000Z 70 35005KT 22.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1100Z 71 36004KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1200Z 72 36004KT 23.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080323/1300Z 73 02006KT 27.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1400Z 74 03007KT 30.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1500Z 75 03008KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1600Z 76 02007KT 34.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1700Z 77 02007KT 36.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1800Z 78 01008KT 37.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080323/1900Z 79 01008KT 38.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/2000Z 80 01009KT 38.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/2100Z 81 36010KT 38.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/2200Z 82 36009KT 36.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/2300Z 83 35008KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/0000Z 84 35006KT 32.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
========================================================================================================

RUC

StnID: kfwa Model: ruc Run: 20080320/1900 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.1

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||CumSR|TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR
==============================================================================================================
080320/2000Z 1 29012KT 45.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2100Z 2 31012KT 45.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2200Z 3 32011KT 43.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2300Z 4 33009KT 41.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0000Z 5 35006KT 37.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0100Z 6 35005KT 35.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/0200Z 7 36004KT 33.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0300Z 8 03003KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0400Z 9 03005KT 33.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
========================================================================================================

GFS3

StnID: kfwa Model: gfs3 Run: 20080320/1200 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Sleet Ratio: 2:1 || CarSnowTool Beta 5.1

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||CumSR|TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR
==============================================================================================================
080320/1500Z 3 30010KT 38.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/1800Z 6 30011KT 43.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080320/2100Z 9 30011KT 44.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0000Z 12 33007KT 34.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/0300Z 15 33004KT 31.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0600Z 18 01004KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/0900Z 21 07006KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1200Z 24 09010KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080321/1500Z 27 09013KT 31.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 10:1| 0.2 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/1800Z 30 10016KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.2 0.039|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080321/2100Z 33 08019KT 30.4F SNPL 3:1| 0.7|| 4:1| 0.9 0.220|| 0.28 0.32|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.00
080322/0000Z 36 08016KT 30.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4:1| 0.9 0.094|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.32 0.10|| 0.10
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080322/0300Z 39 06017KT 29.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4:1| 0.9 0.091|| 0.46 0.00|| 0.32 0.10|| 0.19
080322/0600Z 42 07015KT 27.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4:1| 0.9 0.043|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.32 0.05|| 0.24
080322/0900Z 45 05012KT 25.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4:1| 0.9 0.043|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.32 0.05|| 0.29
080322/1200Z 48 03012KT 23.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 5:1| 1.6 0.059|| 0.61 0.00|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.29
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080322/1500Z 51 01011KT 23.9F SNOW 23:1| 0.9|| 7:1| 2.5 0.039|| 0.65 0.00|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.29
080322/1800Z 54 36010KT 29.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 7:1| 2.5 0.000|| 0.65 0.00|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.29
080322/2100Z 57 34008KT 31.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 7:1| 2.5 0.000|| 0.65 0.00|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.29
080323/0000Z 60 32006KT 25.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080323/0300Z 63 31006KT 21.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0600Z 66 29006KT 18.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/0900Z 69 30005KT 16.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1200Z 72 29005KT 16.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080323/1500Z 75 27005KT 27.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/1800Z 78 28008KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080323/2100Z 81 30011KT 33.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/0000Z 84 31008KT 28.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080324/0300Z 87 30005KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/0600Z 90 26005KT 21.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/0900Z 93 25005KT 22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/1200Z 96 25006KT 23.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080324/1500Z 99 25008KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/1800Z 102 24009KT 38.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080324/2100Z 105 23013KT 42.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080325/0000Z 108 22010KT 35.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080325/0300Z 111 22011KT 33.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080325/0600Z 114 21012KT 34.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080325/0900Z 117 21015KT 34.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080325/1200Z 120 21017KT 34.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080325/1500Z 123 22017KT 38.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.024|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080325/1800Z 126 23015KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.150|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080325/2100Z 129 24015KT 41.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.091|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080326/0000Z 132 26014KT 43.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.039|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080326/0300Z 135 28010KT 41.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080326/0600Z 138 28010KT 36.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080326/0900Z 141 28008KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080326/1200Z 144 27006KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080326/1500Z 147 29007KT 40.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080326/1800Z 150 30007KT 46.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080326/2100Z 153 34006KT 39.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080327/0000Z 156 VRB02KT 35.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.063|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080327/0300Z 159 VRB01KT 34.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.008|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080327/0600Z 162 04005KT 32.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080327/0900Z 165 06008KT 28.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
080327/1200Z 168 08013KT 28.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
080327/1500Z 171 09012KT 30.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.01
080327/1800Z 174 10015KT 30.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.059|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.06|| 0.07
080327/2100Z 177 10015KT 33.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.000|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
080328/0000Z 180 11015KT 34.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0:1| 0.0 0.020|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07
========================================================================================================

WLNS WRF Workstation

Winter Storm

First let me apologize for the lack of updates yesterday, I was in Boston at the beginning of the week and I was a walking zombie yesterday. Now to matter at hand, another winter storm? Yep, that storm I was blogging about yesterday is going to prove to be interesting by tomorrow afternoon and evening.

First we go to the Global Forecasting Model. By 8am Friday the system is parked across northern Missouri.
By 1pm the system moves directly west and we see it across southern Illinois
By the end of the day on Friday the system moves toward southern Indiana. Here's where I begin to do a bit of questioning because for the first 12 hours the system heads due east. However, it takes a 50 mile southern turn by the end of the day Friday. This turn is very important because for us this is the difference between rain and snow. If this system does dive south then we are in for some accumulating snow by Friday afternoon and especially Friday night.
By 2am Saturday morning we see this weather system across the southern part of the state, if this track is correct look for the heaviest snow to occur early Saturday morning.
As the system moves farther south on Saturday afternoon it's Ohio's turn to get in on the excitement this could mean heavy snow for northern Ohio.
Now to the European which has the low in essentially the same position Friday morning.
Here's the difference in models, unlike the GFS the European has the low dropping south this track would limit the amount of snow across the region.
Finally the surface progs from the NCAR. The surface track here is even farther north by tomorrow morning.
Then there is a substantial drop to the south on Friday night and is close to the GFS track

The the Cobb-NAM QPF has about 9 inches of snow across the area. This may be a bit over done but it certainly does bear watching. I am a little perplexed by the track here, right now I would bet on the track a little farther south then our models have it but these late season storm systems can be rather tricky. Spring snow can also be unusually heavy. Don't be fooled by some models over predicting warm temperatures either. Many models have that dreaded seasonal bias. This is a wait and see situation even though the NWS already has put out a Winter Storm Watch.