First we go to the Global Forecasting Model. By 8am Friday the system is parked across northern Missouri.
By 1pm the system moves directly west and we see it across southern Illinois
By the end of the day on Friday the system moves toward southern Indiana. Here's where I begin to do a bit of questioning because for the first 12 hours the system heads due east. However, it takes a 50 mile southern turn by the end of the day Friday. This turn is very important because for us this is the difference between rain and snow. If this system does dive south then we are in for some accumulating snow by Friday afternoon and especially Friday night.
By 2am Saturday morning we see this weather system across the southern part of the state, if this track is correct look for the heaviest snow to occur early Saturday morning.
As the system moves farther south on Saturday afternoon it's Ohio's turn to get in on the excitement this could mean heavy snow for northern Ohio.
Now to the European which has the low in essentially the same position Friday morning.
Here's the difference in models, unlike the GFS the European has the low dropping south this track would limit the amount of snow across the region.
Finally the surface progs from the NCAR. The surface track here is even farther north by tomorrow morning.
Then there is a substantial drop to the south on Friday night and is close to the GFS track
The the Cobb-NAM QPF has about 9 inches of snow across the area. This may be a bit over done but it certainly does bear watching. I am a little perplexed by the track here, right now I would bet on the track a little farther south then our models have it but these late season storm systems can be rather tricky. Spring snow can also be unusually heavy. Don't be fooled by some models over predicting warm temperatures either. Many models have that dreaded seasonal bias. This is a wait and see situation even though the NWS already has put out a Winter Storm Watch.
3 comments:
Thanks for this detailed analysis, Greg! We're leaving for northern Ohio tomorrow morning, so I hope any heavy snow holds off until later in the day.
Hi Greg - how often do these models update? If the storm continues on its path when would we go under a warning? Finally, why do our local stations wait so long to put the watch up on the TV? It has been in effect since yesterday and several people I spoke with today did not even know about it, thank goodness I am a weather freak! Thanks in advance, I will be watching for the next blog to see what you think is going to happen!
Have a good one!
Hi Qweenie,
You bring up a complicated subject. We have not put the watch up on TV. The NWS has a policy of putting out watches 48 hours before a storm. Since our station beleives this confuses people we've chosen not to put it up on the screen. The warning could come out this afternoon or later this evening or tomorrow. It all depends on when the NWS feels confident enought to issue the warning. Hope this makes sense, thanks for your comment.
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