Messy Winter Storm

A very interesting pattern with this Pacific front that moves through the area today. Here is a snapshot at about 1pm this afternoon. Notice how the low has been shifted north a bit. Why does this matter? Well the track is very important to us because just a 50 trek to the north and we are looking at more rain then snow across Fort Wayne and shifting that line more towards the north.

By 1am this morning the low shifts to the south but it orginates across the north and it may be a little too far north for us to see a lot of accumulated snow across much of the area. The yellow line here indicates the track to the south where it changes to all snow. Unlike some of the other systems we've seen during the winter this storm is coming in on a more northerly track so it doesn't come in from the south and make that northeast turn, as it heads south we see the snowfall diminishing.
This is where it gets even more interesting, as we look at the Global Forecast Model it has the low across northern Illinois by 1pm this afternoon which is very similar to the track from the progs I just detailed above.
By the end of the day today the low is pushed north of Terre Haute. This sets off the alarm system for me because it's trending a little farther north then I would like to see for heavy snowfall. The 850 mb has it even farther north then the surface.
The low dives north toward Cincy by 2am Saturday. This will take us to snow and gives us a chance of some accumulation around the Fort Wayne area.
Now the European which doesn't change much from yesterday with the low across northern Missouri this morning.
This is notable by 8am Saturday this system pulls farther south
The late QPF had mostly rain across the area for today and most of this evening and is cranking out about 3" of snowfall for Fort Wayne tonight I think it will be a little less then that. Right now I'll have to lean more toward this GFS-NAM model forecast for the area today and tonight. While we could get a couple of inches of snow overnight, the biggest snowfall will be towards the Indiana/Michigan border, and maybe even farther north then that.