This storm system is why meteorologists get gray hair. It's a complicated scenario but I still think the end result for most of us is going to be same as I blogged about yesterday. Temperatures on the surface are going to be below freezing, however in the layer just above the surface temperatures will be above freezing. This will cause liquid precipitation through mid afternoon but this layer will cool tonight and we will see all snow develop. The problem is going to be this afternoon.
Let's begin our analysis with a look at the European. This is 7am this morning with 850 mb above freezing.
However, by Wednesday 7am temperatures fall well below freezing. So when does the change over occur. As long as temperatures are above freezing in this layer we will see freezing rain.
Then by Thursday another weather system moves in with snow this time but more importantly colder temperatures.
Here is the Global Forecasting Model for this morning with the main are of low pressure to the south this morning and 850 mb temperatures above freezing.
By 1pm, it's still touch and go with the low still across southern Indiana. 850 mb temperatures still above freezing.
Here is where things get interesting. As the low moves north temperatures will be below freezing so it looks like all snow. I think this placement is a little too far north and west for really heavy snowfall.
This position looks a little better for a decent snowfall but overall not the perfect track for us. So still the 2 to 5 inch snowfall looks probable but the big variable is going to be that ice this afternoon. We could see some ice accumulation before the snowfall begins.
Let's begin our analysis with a look at the European. This is 7am this morning with 850 mb above freezing.
However, by Wednesday 7am temperatures fall well below freezing. So when does the change over occur. As long as temperatures are above freezing in this layer we will see freezing rain.
Then by Thursday another weather system moves in with snow this time but more importantly colder temperatures.
Here is the Global Forecasting Model for this morning with the main are of low pressure to the south this morning and 850 mb temperatures above freezing.
By 1pm, it's still touch and go with the low still across southern Indiana. 850 mb temperatures still above freezing.
Here is where things get interesting. As the low moves north temperatures will be below freezing so it looks like all snow. I think this placement is a little too far north and west for really heavy snowfall.
This position looks a little better for a decent snowfall but overall not the perfect track for us. So still the 2 to 5 inch snowfall looks probable but the big variable is going to be that ice this afternoon. We could see some ice accumulation before the snowfall begins.
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