Yesterday when we were looking at this low it was initializing across Texas and moving through Oklahoma. Today we have the low still out in the Gulf of Mexico according to the European model.
The low is taken through southern Ohio but about 200 miles east of where the last low was for a heavy snow track. The European has not wavered in the last couple of runs. Meanwhile the Global Forecast Model...
The GFS is still taking this thing farther west and north. Keep in mind that this model has had some problems during the initialization of the model run. Which basically means that you can't trust the solution. This is an unreliable forecast model to begin with.
Here is 7pm, it has the low developing another circulation north and it still looks like the track is a positive one for heavy snowfall across our area.
Here is 1am Saturday morning. Look at this model and then scroll up and look at the European. Two very diverse tracks here. Which one do you believe? You already know my answer.
Then the model takes it toward Cleveland.
A couple of things to keep in mind. The NWS is very preoccupied with the GFS and the NAM models. These models have proven over and over again to be unreliable, especially this year. I just can't buy into heavy snowfall out of this thing and you know how much fun it is for me to blog about snowfall. It will certainly be fun to watch this play out.
1 comment:
Boo! I was hoping for a good heavy snowfall with drifting, we haven't had much of that in the Decatur area and I like to play in the drifts with my boys. I have really enjoyed this winter and while I'll be happy for spring, I'll miss the white stuff.
If your taking orders for next winter, I'd like pretty much the same thing except I'd like to substitute snow for the ice and sleet we got this year. Thanks
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