Difficult time of year

Most people think as a meteorologist the most difficult part of my job would be forecasting a complex storm system. While this task is certainly challenging one of the most frustrating and difficult times of the year for me is when seasons change. Why you ask? Well, if you are a regular reader of this blog you have probably seen many posts on mathematical models. The difference between meteorology and other mathematical science is that it is not an exact answer. In other words, there may be more than one answer to a problem and that can bring up many difficulties. Here is the other problem, the models have a mathematical bias and that bias is partly based on the season. Let's use the change over from Winter to Spring as an example. Right now any warm temperatures may have a cold air bias attached to it by the models and later in the season may have a Spring temperature bias when we may be actually experiencing Summer time temperatures. Just something to think about on a Wednesday morning at 5:30am :)