This is 7am this morning with the low still not across the area yet. While most of energy is north still a decent amount of vorticity or spin across the area causing a good quick lift for some snow.
Snow from a northern stream system should be coming to a quick end this morning. There was a decent snow burst west of Fort Wayne, but it looks like most areas saw an inch or less of snowfall this morning.
While the energy for this system stays north there is enough lift south to cause some snow showers. This will be a different kind of snow, more of a light fluffy snowfall because of the colder temperatures.
There the system progresses Friday morning. Still well north of the area. The European has a track a little farther north. But I think we can say this system is not going to have a big impact on the area.
Finally here is the system by midday on Friday. Still not really take a southerly track.
The core of the coldest air is still to the north but we still see -18C across the area this morning. Temperatures will not go up much at all today either.
Thursday moring will still see the -20C line across the area at 850 mb.
Here is the main low pressure area is moving due east through Kentucky. We will still see snow but the heaviest precipitation will be south of the area.
By 1pm the low pulls across southern Ohio. Really taking any heavy snowfall away from our area.
By 7pm the low is no longer a factor. However, there seems to be some lake effect snow bands setting up.
Here is the 6z Tuesday 1am tomorrow. (Click on it to make it bigger) The low moves across the southern part of Illinois. This is about 50 to 75 miles farther south than the previous model run. Also notice the temperature at 850mb is about 33 degrees. So we are right at freezing here, We could begin seeing a heavy wet snow across the area.
By 12z or 7am tomorrow morning the low moves across the southern Indiana. The direct east to west movement may mean more snow for areas south of Fort Wayne. This puts the heaviest snowfall south of Fort Wayne to just north of Indianapolis. This could be heavier snow for folks in Muncie. What we are looking for here is a northeast movement of the low towards Toledo.
By 18Z Tuesday we begin to see a really definitive pattern for this system taking it to the east coast.
Here is the European with the low at 7am this morning across northern Oklahoma. Right now Omaha is getting rain from this system.
The system on this model dives south across southern Indiana with 850mb temperatures of -2 by 7am Tuesday. This track would take the low slowly toward the northeast but not fast enough. My big fear here is that we don't change over to snowfall quickly enough and end up with no measurable snowfall
Here is the GFS at 7pm tonight with the low across the 'boot hill' of Missouri
We move to 6z or about 1am Tuesday morning. The low moves across southern Illinois and just south of Terre Haute. Note that the temperatures on this model are Fahrenheit and just hovering above zero.
The low moves almost straight across the area and is in Cincinnati by 7am Tuesday.
By 1pm still looking at snowfall with some snow on the back side of the weather system.
Danger alert here. If this system tracks northwest we could see all rain in places like Fort Wayne and heavy snow to the north.
The placement of the low here is about 100 miles too far north if you follow it I think it moves through just north of Indianapolis That's a lot of sleet for our area and diminishes the snowfall totals.
The east coast better watch out this has nor easter' and 'bombogenesis' written all over it!
I like the track on this model a little better. This is the GFS it has the low about 50 to 75 miles south of the above track on the European.
This is the 54 hour GFS which has the system crossing southern Illinois and going through Terre Haute.
This is the final graphic where the system phases across the east coast and makes a huge storm.
This storm also phases with the northern jet stream across Missouri so that makes it more interesting for us as far as energy and snowfall. Here's the 'fly in the ointment' for me. The first model that I've shown above (European) has been more consistent and is certainly the model of choice here. That would indicate a small snowfall of 2 to 3 inches. The National Weather Service has already considered one their famous 48 hour ahead time watches. I am so glad they did not issue it here because it saves me headaches today and tomorrow I really think it's too early to issue anything on this storm as it's still out in the Pacific. We'll have fun following it though!
Look reallyl closely here. The low is moving through central Kentucky and continues due east. Not really a northeastern tendancy here.
By 7pm tonight it's really over as the low is on the east coast.
Here is an estimated snowfall graphic bringing the heaviest snow between Muncie and Indianapolis.
