Ready For Action

Okay, so this deserves another post. New model runs coming in this morning have some very disturbing news. Could be heavy rain or snow or both. The new GFS brings the low through southern Indiana and then north. This scenario would begin as rain and end as some heavy snow. Okay so lets go through the latest. Here is the GFS series surface and precipitation. Here is the 12z (7am) Sunday it brings the low through southern Missouri, then through Illinois. Plenty of moisture here. Here is the 12z (7pm) Sunday the low is coming up through Evansville. This is a dangerous track. It would begin with heavy snow through Indianapolis.

Finally the 6z 1am Monday. This track takes the low through northwestern Ohio. This is an especially heavy snow for us.



Let me temper this with the fact that many times the GFS is a very undependable model so don't get your sleds out yet.



On the other side of the ring the European. It takes a different tact with this next system taking the track much further north and west that would bring in heavy rain followed by bitter cold temperatures. By the way, I think bitter cold temperatures are not really in question, in other words don't put away the parka.
So do want to know why my forecast for Sunday is 42 while NWS and every other outlet is going 33? Here it is. Temperatures of +4 C in front of a low which is much farther north. This could mean heavy rain. Something we really don't need.
Here is the end result. Heavy rain turns to snow and then bitter cold temperatures with -18 C coming in by Monday afternoon. This means very gusty winds and bitter cold wind chills not to mention cold temperatures.