Staying South

The 6z (1am) Global Forecast Model is bringing a little more certainty to the developing Winter storm. It has the main low pressure are staying south. Here is the 6z Tuesday 1am tomorrow. (Click on it to make it bigger) The low moves across the southern part of Illinois. This is about 50 to 75 miles farther south than the previous model run. Also notice the temperature at 850mb is about 33 degrees. So we are right at freezing here, We could begin seeing a heavy wet snow across the area.
By 12z or 7am tomorrow morning the low moves across the southern Indiana. The direct east to west movement may mean more snow for areas south of Fort Wayne. This puts the heaviest snowfall south of Fort Wayne to just north of Indianapolis. This could be heavier snow for folks in Muncie. What we are looking for here is a northeast movement of the low towards Toledo.
By 18Z Tuesday we begin to see a really definitive pattern for this system taking it to the east coast.

A couple of things to keep in mind here. This model has been really inconsistent this year. Usually taking the snow track more toward the north and the west. If this were to occur then heavy snow would be a possibility for the area. However, this model run today shows consistency with the model of choice that I use most often, (the European). The European has a similar track for this storm system the last several runs. So, in meteorology we can't draw foregone conclusions but this seems to be more of a certainty in path for this weather system.