Now the fun begins!

So if you woke up and looked at any weather website you see the watches have already gone out for this Winter storm which doesn't develop until overnight tonight and into tomorrow across our area. In my opinion let's not throw up the red flag yet. Temperatures are one hurdle we have to get over the other is what I blogged about yesterday the dreaded track of the low pressure. Let's deal with temperatures first it looks like temperatures don't drop to 32.2F until about 4am. It will be a rain/snow mix from about 10pm until 4am when the change over occurs. Right now the NAM-Cobb output is about 6.1". My best estimate is to cut that in half, at best this model is overdone on this system. (This has been the case this year and this model has seriously overdone every storm system). The other variable here is your model choice. Let's take a look at a few:
Here is the European with the low at 7am this morning across northern Oklahoma. Right now Omaha is getting rain from this system.
The system on this model dives south across southern Indiana with 850mb temperatures of -2 by 7am Tuesday. This track would take the low slowly toward the northeast but not fast enough. My big fear here is that we don't change over to snowfall quickly enough and end up with no measurable snowfall

Here is the GFS at 7pm tonight with the low across the 'boot hill' of Missouri
We move to 6z or about 1am Tuesday morning. The low moves across southern Illinois and just south of Terre Haute. Note that the temperatures on this model are Fahrenheit and just hovering above zero.
The low moves almost straight across the area and is in Cincinnati by 7am Tuesday.
By 1pm still looking at snowfall with some snow on the back side of the weather system.

Danger alert here. If this system tracks northwest we could see all rain in places like Fort Wayne and heavy snow to the north.