Messy Weekend Forecast

Okay, now to the weekend I'm afraid I don't have a lot of good news but it certainly is an interesting study in meteorology. The strong Gulf of Alaska flow will move two strong systems to the area, much like the system of just a couple of days ago. Here's the difference, the last time we had two strong flows like this the southern stream did not phase with the northern stream system. This time will phase. So what does this mean for us. We'll if you haven't read my post from yesterday, go back and read it now before you read the rest of this post. The models have now come to more of a consensus as to the pattern of these two strong systems. The way the low looks right now it seems that it will move northwest with the low actually moving right through our area. Let's break this down Here is 12z (7am) Sunday. You can see two distinct weather system systems. The southern stream system is across Missouri and the northern stream system is north of the US border.
Here is 18z (1pm) Sunday Look at the path of the Southern Low moving through central Illinois The northern stream low is weakening and is close to phasing with the strong southern stream system. Here is the 0z Monday or (7pm Sunday) model. The southern and northern low have phased and they are centering right over southern lower Michigan. This southern low is going to bring some warmer air ahead of it. This track is not a good track for snow but it is for rain. I guess the only saving grace is that the cold is is quickly behind. But we could see a heavy rain Sunday.

By 12z Monday (7am) This system moves across eastern Lake Erie. Look at this bitter arctic air wrapping around this system. -24C! Here is the bitter cold air moving into northern Indiana by 6z Tuesday (1am). -24C moves in by Tuesday morning. So look for strong cold air advection late Monday through Tuesday morning when we see the coldest air.